SP500 crash course
Updated
Hello. Today I'm gonna give you a warning of the possible beginning of the 10 years+ bull market in the US stock market.
After hitting an ATH recently from a "miraculous" recover since Christmas, we had walked off from a rising wedge pattern and things turned from heaven to hell. We lost the 10+ year uptrend line, tested her as resistance and failed to break it. Hence, a downward pivot possibly could be completed if we break the 2806 area. This pivot is a special one because even if we look at RSI, the pivot pattern is there too, and the pivotal point is right at 50's area and looking bellow, which means that a seller force could be gaining strength once more.
If that happen, we should have seen a test on ma200, and in cause it fails the first target of the pivot could trigger a huge selloff until 2743.
So, key prices are shown below:
2820 ("triple resistance" from Oct to Dec 18 that led us to the V bottom on the index until Christmas);
2806~2800 (which enables the pivot);
ma200;
2743 (first pivot target);
2715 (38,2% fib retracement of previous movement);
2677 (final pivot target).
It's important to bear in mind that until we brake 2894 (invalidation of the pivot) or the resistance from the 10y bull run, in my opinion, there's no happy ending in this history. I mean, we could go sideways or keep going higher (but still, below the purple line), but for me, market is showing too many signs of weakness and that's enough for me to don't feel comfortable making longs, portfolios or long-term buys on stocks/futures and so on.
Stay safe! As always, don't forget to hit the thumbs up button and feel free to comment.
After hitting an ATH recently from a "miraculous" recover since Christmas, we had walked off from a rising wedge pattern and things turned from heaven to hell. We lost the 10+ year uptrend line, tested her as resistance and failed to break it. Hence, a downward pivot possibly could be completed if we break the 2806 area. This pivot is a special one because even if we look at RSI, the pivot pattern is there too, and the pivotal point is right at 50's area and looking bellow, which means that a seller force could be gaining strength once more.
If that happen, we should have seen a test on ma200, and in cause it fails the first target of the pivot could trigger a huge selloff until 2743.
So, key prices are shown below:
2820 ("triple resistance" from Oct to Dec 18 that led us to the V bottom on the index until Christmas);
2806~2800 (which enables the pivot);
ma200;
2743 (first pivot target);
2715 (38,2% fib retracement of previous movement);
2677 (final pivot target).
It's important to bear in mind that until we brake 2894 (invalidation of the pivot) or the resistance from the 10y bull run, in my opinion, there's no happy ending in this history. I mean, we could go sideways or keep going higher (but still, below the purple line), but for me, market is showing too many signs of weakness and that's enough for me to don't feel comfortable making longs, portfolios or long-term buys on stocks/futures and so on.
Stay safe! As always, don't forget to hit the thumbs up button and feel free to comment.
Note
ma200 had held the price until now, but everything is running according to my view. I still think that 2740 area is super reacheable. Let's see!!Note
We are close to the first target. RSI pivot had been confirmed too, it seems. So far, so good...Note
OpsPosted the update on comments hehehe
I guess its clear to everyone! Cheers!
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