ES mini - Bias still up
Updated
We had a pullback from the fib line yesterday which makes sense, but we haven't had much of a sell off. It's looking like a consolidation so far - and that may be the case all day into tomorrow's CPI. The election results haven't really phased the markets (as of now) so CPI will probably be the decider.
There are still 2 possible ABC forms at play - Yellow and Green Path. The Yellow (bullish option) has to be considered stronger as of now since we are still over the 18ma (bullish bias) and a consolidation at a resistance point is usually a sign that the market is collecting energy for the next move up. Also CBOE put/call is again at extreme levels for puts. ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio.
The bearish case gets much stronger on a breach of 3770 (under the previous fib line/support zone from yesterday's low). I thought yesterday they were going to break the fib support, but it held strong so it may be a sign the market is not done with the upmove just yet.
Good luck
There are still 2 possible ABC forms at play - Yellow and Green Path. The Yellow (bullish option) has to be considered stronger as of now since we are still over the 18ma (bullish bias) and a consolidation at a resistance point is usually a sign that the market is collecting energy for the next move up. Also CBOE put/call is again at extreme levels for puts. ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio.
The bearish case gets much stronger on a breach of 3770 (under the previous fib line/support zone from yesterday's low). I thought yesterday they were going to break the fib support, but it held strong so it may be a sign the market is not done with the upmove just yet.
Good luck
Comment
If there's a bear trap - watch for 3780ish (fib line) to be held as support before a move up.Comment
Daily candle yesterday was indecision. The Key level I'm watching is highlighted - 18ma and fib trendline. If that area holds, more upside is likely. Comment
If there is a short squeeze after CPI, this is a possible path. With the shorts at levels not seen since march 2020, it could certainly happen this way into Friday or next week. Comment
according to cboe, put/call ratio was higher on November 8th than at the covid lows in march '20 - bizarre ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio
Comment
Stop run at open would make sense Comment
Very close to 18ma support, personally I'm buying around here and lower for a swing up. Comment
They have broken under the 18ma and pitchfork fib - bearish. I'm out of longs and may take a small short position on any bounce. Bear option now firmly on the table as a C wave down is more probable. Comment
Bears taking control now. I'll wait for a CPI bounce (if it comes) and then short it. Taking the rest of the day off - good luck! 
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