#ES Futures 06.10.22 Daily Overview and Levels to Watch
Updated
Yday we were waiting to see if we will have enough supply to break T+2 Low and Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25, move took quite a while to get going as we still had plenty of buyers to fill at the support area, to be honest I already started to think it wont happen so missed the whole ride down but we did break support and sold off right under our next Key Support of 4030.75-4025.25, ideally I wanted to see upper levels hold and not reach this support if we were to make a move back out today but that did not happen and it does make sense as we had 7+ Days of inventory built up in that range. So far we flushed and took back the whole move that was done on lower volume before Memorial day which tells us that we ran the price up to sell the product that was acquired lower. Question today is do we continue to head lower since we are set to open below T+2 low and should still have plenty of inventory above to get some Margin call selling or will we find support here and get back over 4030.75-4025.25 to get back to the area where we sold off from. Currently Globex inventory is short and built up below our Key Level and waiting for CPI to move. On The Upside today if we get back over 4030.75-4025.25 and can hold that area it tells us that yesterday sell off was just built up inventory coming out and we could see it rotate back up towards 4046-4042.25, 4061.50-4056.50 and possible to reach and test that Key level of 4084.50-4077.25 to see if sellers are still there, our T+2 low is 4105 and we expect selling from below that area so have to monitor each level for continuation. On the downside failure to get over the Key Level and hold can bring us lower to 4012.50-4008.75, 3994.50-3988.75 and next Key Support at 3976.50-3971.50 if going down with good volume and we break that support then we can head lower to 3957.25-3953.25, 3944.25-3940.25 and 3931.75-3927.25 as we do have plenty of supply built up above and we will be looking for buyers.
Comment
Well that was a violent move, CPI gave us a flush all the way down below our next Key Support at 3976.50-3971.50 and now we have even more people trapped above us. As mentioned above if we break this area we can see lower levels tested and now seeing this volume I think a break of next Support of 3931.75-3927.25 is a possibility and can head lower, lower levels to watch are 3914.75-3910.75, 3901.25-3898 Key level of 3892.25-3887.25 and possible lower if order flow permits. Careful buying dips today as we can see bounces but get rogue order flow to the downside due to margin calls.Comment
Margin calls in full effect this morning, every pop getting sold so far. Will want to see what we do at 3878.75-74.75 area if we get there, thats another swing low spot that can send us lover if taken or a place we can find better supportComment
Hard day to trade, move off the open was the main sell move today and I was very biased that with all that supply coming out and breaking 3931.75-3927.25 that we will visit low Key Support at 3892.25-3887.25 and lower. This caused me to take a few bad traders during consolidation between 11 and 1300, nothing major but ate into profits, after 3901.25-3898 could not break on multiple attempts and we got back over 3914.75-3910.75 I lost my bias for that direction and looked at profile saw that we are holding in b shape today which means shorts covering at the bottom and we are back in the daily zone which is the lowest cost basis of trades who pushed us up from here. Ended up taking one last short from VWAP rejection and above key level from 3933 down to 3920 and called it a day with 44points. I think missing yesterdays move down made me more bias for a bigger move today. Doesn't mean we cant revisit next week and go lower but so far that was my MGI for today heading into next week. 3927-3887 will be area to watch.
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