6/15: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
Yesterday's FOMC session contained the typical trap, but ultimately the dip was bought, continuing the impressive uptrend we've seen in recent weeks. The rally demonstrates the power of simple technical analysis and the importance of holding runners. We have had a massive rally, and it would not be surprising to see ES get some complex rangebound trading, which is much needed.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headline
FOMC holds rates steady and signals two more hikes this year.
Chinese stocks up as People's Bank of China eases momentary policy.
European Central Bank raises rate 25bps.
Key Structures
The large white rising channel from the March low is the "macro uptrend channel" and controls the broader leg up since the March low. Support is now at 4245, and immediate resistance is at 4462. The 4275-80 yellow trendline represents the breakout of both the February and May 2023 highs. The green channel structure with 4366 resistance is now the most immediate back-test level. The 4385-90 zone remains key support.
Support Levels
4413 (major), 4403, 4385-90 (major), 4366 (major), 4357, 4343-4338 (major), 4327, 4315-17 (major), 4290, 4275-80 (major), 4263, 4245 (major), 4230, 4215-20 (major), 4197, 4175-80, 4166 (major), 4158, 4141, 4123 (major)
Resistance Levels
4422, 4430 (major), 4438, 4445-50 (major), 4462 (major), 4477, 4496, 4505-4510 (major), 4518, 4530-35 (major), 4540, 4570 (major), 4595, 4615, 4635-40 (major)
Trading Plan
Watch for failed breakdowns at 4413, 4404, and 4385-90, which are the immediate supports below. Resistances at 4445-50 and 4462 could provide reaction spots for counter-trend shorting. Bulls remain in control as long as we are above the June 1st breakout level, with a 4413 key mid-pivot. Sells occur under 4385.
Wrap Up
The general likelihood for today is that we base build in the 4390-4430 range, with a 4413 key mid-pivot. This sets up a push up the levels to 4438, 4445-50, 4462. Sells occur under 4385.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Yesterday's FOMC session contained the typical trap, but ultimately the dip was bought, continuing the impressive uptrend we've seen in recent weeks. The rally demonstrates the power of simple technical analysis and the importance of holding runners. We have had a massive rally, and it would not be surprising to see ES get some complex rangebound trading, which is much needed.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headline
FOMC holds rates steady and signals two more hikes this year.
Chinese stocks up as People's Bank of China eases momentary policy.
European Central Bank raises rate 25bps.
Key Structures
The large white rising channel from the March low is the "macro uptrend channel" and controls the broader leg up since the March low. Support is now at 4245, and immediate resistance is at 4462. The 4275-80 yellow trendline represents the breakout of both the February and May 2023 highs. The green channel structure with 4366 resistance is now the most immediate back-test level. The 4385-90 zone remains key support.
Support Levels
4413 (major), 4403, 4385-90 (major), 4366 (major), 4357, 4343-4338 (major), 4327, 4315-17 (major), 4290, 4275-80 (major), 4263, 4245 (major), 4230, 4215-20 (major), 4197, 4175-80, 4166 (major), 4158, 4141, 4123 (major)
Resistance Levels
4422, 4430 (major), 4438, 4445-50 (major), 4462 (major), 4477, 4496, 4505-4510 (major), 4518, 4530-35 (major), 4540, 4570 (major), 4595, 4615, 4635-40 (major)
Trading Plan
Watch for failed breakdowns at 4413, 4404, and 4385-90, which are the immediate supports below. Resistances at 4445-50 and 4462 could provide reaction spots for counter-trend shorting. Bulls remain in control as long as we are above the June 1st breakout level, with a 4413 key mid-pivot. Sells occur under 4385.
Wrap Up
The general likelihood for today is that we base build in the 4390-4430 range, with a 4413 key mid-pivot. This sets up a push up the levels to 4438, 4445-50, 4462. Sells occur under 4385.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer
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