ES Premarket Update

3hr MFI is headed quickly to oversold, and the dollar index is bouncing back a little. FUtures are also green.

I expect the market to bounce up when MFI gets oversold, so possibly a gap up which sells off then market goes back up?

Gold trade is on hold until currency direction is determined. The dollar will eventually break though, so holding the small position I bought yesterday morning..... that way I'll watch gold. We'll see where that goes....

US dollar is oversold on 3hr and daily charts, so there's a chance it will bounce back up.... or maybe it just goes into full tank mode and ignores indicators. Hard market to judge.

Note

Take a look at teh gold plots I posted last night, it's all about teh dollar.

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Only buy stocks with limited China exposure, I wouldn;t short anything in case Trump backs off of China over the weekend.

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Dollar is back testing support and bond yields have stabilized. That's good news for bulls.

Futures are forming a pennant, so expect a whipsaw open. Futures were up 50 but now down to just 15.

Probably best to be patient at open.

Note

AAPL exempted from tariffs along with other electronics.

cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html

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Good grief, tell them the market is closed on weekends so there's no reason to whipsaw investors, lol.

reuters.com/markets/us-commerce-secretary-says-exempted-electronic-products-come-under-separate-2025-04-13/

Note

OPEN GAP ALERT - Futures gapped up, this gap will close for sure sooner or later. Might even fill before open, we'll see.

Gold gapped down, that will definitely fill.

Note

Tariff timeframe is "next month or two":

On social media, the president signaled Sunday that the scope of his next inquiry would be broad, “taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations.”

So expect another drop whenever that happens.

I'll stick with gold for now.

Note

20% "fentanyl tariff" still applies, keeping track of all of the shit must be real confusing for anyone actually doing business with China, lol.

If I was exporting out of China, I'd just glue a chip to the product and call it electronics, lol. Nowadays most toys have some sort of electronics imbeded....

hungry_hippo

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hungry_hippo