S&P in EUR present Wyckoff distribution
Updated
S&P (in this chart ES futures) divided by EURUSD (in this chart Euro futures):
The whole of 2022 could be Wyckoff distribution, now entering Phase C, the shortest phase.
To confirm the pattern and continuation to phase D, look for:
ideally no later than the end of December.
Motivation:
The whole of 2022 could be Wyckoff distribution, now entering Phase C, the shortest phase.
To confirm the pattern and continuation to phase D, look for:
- Fed hike less aggressively in 2023
- ECB hike more aggressively in 2023
- A move up in EUR (a move down in DXY)
- A move down in ES/SPY/SPX
ideally no later than the end of December.
Motivation:
- European investors are likely overweight US stocks in 2022.
- It is important to understand the price of S&P 500 in EURO as it is the cheaper currency to borrow.
- Macroeconomic trends suggest distribution rather than accumulation.
Trade active
Phase C appears to have ended. Certainly so once the support line at 3700 is broken, marking the beginning of the active trading phase of this plan.Final upthrust (UTAD) never manifested, instead it was a weak sideways pattern.
Phase D should inhabit the space between 3500 and 3700 as the ball gets rolling.
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