Descending Triangle + Inverted A & E could = Doom for ETH:BTC
Updated
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Previous analysis/position: Have been thinking/tweeting about shorting it
Patterns: Descending triangle on weekly with target of 0.002. Can kind of see an inverted h&s on daily but do not give it credence
Horizontal support and resistance: R = 0.058 | S = 0.05
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 is currently acting as resistance | 26 = -5%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -12.3% | 128 = -19.71% | Recent death cross
FIB’s: Not very helpful, but could see 0.382 at 0.06
Candlestick analysis: Hanging men from two and three days ago should provide fractal/stop loss
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish with Tekan-Sen acting as resistance | Weekly cloud is at 0.019
TD’ Sequential: 9 on the buy setup and 13 on the buy countdown on the 3d. R-9 on the weekly with a R-2 > R-1 | Not very helpful on daily
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h = 0.0574 | POC over last 5 days = 0.0578 | POC over last month = 0.05688 | POC over last year = 0.0715
Bollinger Bands: MA acting as resistance on daily. Near bottom band on weekly.
Trendline: On weekly connect 1/29 to 5/14.
Daily Trend: Chop (up on the day)
Fractals: UP = 0.0587 | DOWN = 0.054
On Balance Volume: Very flat in 2018. Putting OBV on top we can see that volatility is on the horizon. This is confirmed with the normal volume indicator, has been extremely low since spike in Dec of 2017. Expecting another spike in volume soon.
ADX: Daily ADX = 52 which indicates the need to range while it returns to 20 | Weekly ADX created a higher low and had a recent bearish cross. Indicates plenty of room to trend (unlike daily)
Chaikin Money Flow: On weekly it is > 0.2 and climbing fast | Bouncing sharply from -0.03 on daily.
RSI (30 setting): Bouncing off 30 on daily. Recently fell below 50 on weekly.
Stoch: Oversold on weekly, angling for a bullish cross. Recent buy signal on 3d (has been a very good signal in this bear market). If it resists 20 then it could be ready to dump hard. Approaching overbought zones on the daily.
Summary: Originally I wanted to short right now due to risk:reward provided by most recent up fractals. However I am going to hang tight due to:
Stochastic on the 3d
Daily, 3d and Weekly TD' Sequential
Stop order is set at 0.0524 to open a short as soon as the triangle breaks down. Watching for 1-4 candle correction on the daily to provide a very favorable entry. If we retest the top of the triangle then I will be opening the full position.
Previous analysis/position: Have been thinking/tweeting about shorting it
Patterns: Descending triangle on weekly with target of 0.002. Can kind of see an inverted h&s on daily but do not give it credence
Horizontal support and resistance: R = 0.058 | S = 0.05
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 is currently acting as resistance | 26 = -5%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -12.3% | 128 = -19.71% | Recent death cross
FIB’s: Not very helpful, but could see 0.382 at 0.06
Candlestick analysis: Hanging men from two and three days ago should provide fractal/stop loss
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish with Tekan-Sen acting as resistance | Weekly cloud is at 0.019
TD’ Sequential: 9 on the buy setup and 13 on the buy countdown on the 3d. R-9 on the weekly with a R-2 > R-1 | Not very helpful on daily
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h = 0.0574 | POC over last 5 days = 0.0578 | POC over last month = 0.05688 | POC over last year = 0.0715
Bollinger Bands: MA acting as resistance on daily. Near bottom band on weekly.
Trendline: On weekly connect 1/29 to 5/14.
Daily Trend: Chop (up on the day)
Fractals: UP = 0.0587 | DOWN = 0.054
On Balance Volume: Very flat in 2018. Putting OBV on top we can see that volatility is on the horizon. This is confirmed with the normal volume indicator, has been extremely low since spike in Dec of 2017. Expecting another spike in volume soon.
ADX: Daily ADX = 52 which indicates the need to range while it returns to 20 | Weekly ADX created a higher low and had a recent bearish cross. Indicates plenty of room to trend (unlike daily)
Chaikin Money Flow: On weekly it is > 0.2 and climbing fast | Bouncing sharply from -0.03 on daily.
RSI (30 setting): Bouncing off 30 on daily. Recently fell below 50 on weekly.
Stoch: Oversold on weekly, angling for a bullish cross. Recent buy signal on 3d (has been a very good signal in this bear market). If it resists 20 then it could be ready to dump hard. Approaching overbought zones on the daily.
Summary: Originally I wanted to short right now due to risk:reward provided by most recent up fractals. However I am going to hang tight due to:
Stochastic on the 3d
Daily, 3d and Weekly TD' Sequential
Stop order is set at 0.0524 to open a short as soon as the triangle breaks down. Watching for 1-4 candle correction on the daily to provide a very favorable entry. If we retest the top of the triangle then I will be opening the full position.
Note
Have started to build my position due to a Red 3 trading below a Red 2Seeing ETH:USD pullback under resistance while BTC is still holding is another major reason why I want to start entering now
Stop loss is set at 0.0591. Order set to add if/when 0.054 breaks down.
Trade active
Note
Fully entered from 0.05234 - 0.0554Note
In today's update of the Bitcoin price - day 175 - I noticed a number of bullish signs that made me feel uncomfortable holding onto my shorts. Instead of closing out entirely I have adjusted my stops and taken profit on 20% of the position. Using 5X leverage the ETH:BTC short is currently + 111.75%. Covering part of my position and tightening the stops ensures a profitable trade and makes me feel much more comfortable about the bullish indicators listed in the daily update.
Trade closed manually
Closed the rest of this position this morning. Feeling very uncomfortable with the btcusdshorts chart and am starting to expect another squeeze before the eventual breakdown of $5,750. ETHBTC is at an area that has been support in the past and I am hoping to re open my position if we get a bounce to > 0.0475.Using 5:1 leverage this position returned +101.88% in 17 days.
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