Had a few messages asking me if my Ethereum / USD short trade idea is now obsolete with the changing market sentiment. Figured it would be easier to publish another idea.
Answer: An emphatic NO with bells on.
The majority of tradingview ideas are long at the moment calling for dizzying heights, as are popular Youtubers. What do I know… they might all be right, markets are irrational.
Rather than what I know, I’d rather look at what is possible versus what is probable. That is how every trade you make should be examined; suddenly emotions are removed from the analysis.
In 22 months Ethereum has appreciated 5500% since $80. Amazing.
On the above monthly chart during September / October a ‘incredible sell’ illuminated around $4500. This is a probability indicator normally only seen on the daily chart. Rarely is it seen on the weekly. But on the monthly?! Look left, the signal did not even print on the 2017/18 market top during all that euphoria. But it did print on the 2-week.
Regular bearish divergence. It is as clear as day. The majority of 2021 continued to print higher highs as RSI printed lower lows. This does not make for a rosy 2022 for Ethereum price action!
Lower lows are also printing on the MFI. This is significant, this is telling you money is flowing out. Don’t be the last one out the door.
In summary:
Is it possible price action moves higher? For sure.
Is it probable? No.
1st Target: $1200
2nd Target: $670
2nd target only if 1st target fails to offer support. 2nd target is also the 0.5 Fibonacci level that offered support following the 2018 correction.
Good luck!
WW
Answer: An emphatic NO with bells on.
The majority of tradingview ideas are long at the moment calling for dizzying heights, as are popular Youtubers. What do I know… they might all be right, markets are irrational.
Rather than what I know, I’d rather look at what is possible versus what is probable. That is how every trade you make should be examined; suddenly emotions are removed from the analysis.
In 22 months Ethereum has appreciated 5500% since $80. Amazing.
On the above monthly chart during September / October a ‘incredible sell’ illuminated around $4500. This is a probability indicator normally only seen on the daily chart. Rarely is it seen on the weekly. But on the monthly?! Look left, the signal did not even print on the 2017/18 market top during all that euphoria. But it did print on the 2-week.
Regular bearish divergence. It is as clear as day. The majority of 2021 continued to print higher highs as RSI printed lower lows. This does not make for a rosy 2022 for Ethereum price action!
Lower lows are also printing on the MFI. This is significant, this is telling you money is flowing out. Don’t be the last one out the door.
In summary:
Is it possible price action moves higher? For sure.
Is it probable? No.
1st Target: $1200
2nd Target: $670
2nd target only if 1st target fails to offer support. 2nd target is also the 0.5 Fibonacci level that offered support following the 2018 correction.
Good luck!
WW
Note
** Ethereum dominance fake out. **I know a lot of folks have been talking about Ethereum dominance breaking out and upward, possibly even knocking Bitcoin off no. 1 position. This 10-day chart on Ethereum dominance tells you why that's not going to happen.
On the 10-day ETH.D chart below dominance broke resistance and returned to earth printing a fake out. More alarmingly dominance has just broken through previous support following a higher high in dominance and a lower high in RSI.
This is 100% not the time to be bullish on Ethereum.
Note
There she goes. Please use your seat belt on the journey down to $1200.Not every alt-token will follow Ethereum down, popular no doubt is the idea.
Note
There's a 'incredible buy' signal printing on the 3-day chart, which might see a creation of the right shoulder on the head and shoulders pattern. The pattern is only broken should price action clear the 
4K area with volume.Note
Ethereum is about to print a weekly death cross. It is highly improbable this will be avoided.Look left. The last cross resulted in bearish price action for almost a year.
December 2022 may provide an excellent long opportunity.
Note
** monthly stochastic RSI drops below 20 ** Be extra careful. Price action collapsed over 80% the last time stochastic RSI on the monthly chart dropped below 20 (purple circles). Don't let emotions tell you this is something to ignore.
Trade active
Think we're on the verge of a significant Ethereum / Bitcoin decoupling. i.e. Ethereum price action will tumble without Bitcoin matching it.On the 2-week chart below the ETH/BTC is printing a very clear bearish divergence. This follows a sell signal.
Trade active
Seeing lots of lovely capitulation now. No price is low enough for sellers operating on emotion, bless them.Price action is approaching the 200-week moving average (blue line). A bounce should be expected from here if you believe in the power of moving averages (I don't).
The $1200 target remains valid for the time being. If that fails, as looks likely, then look for support at $750. My own buy orders are waiting around $750.
Trade closed: target reached
Ka-boom!! Now read the comments below, were you in club 95%?
No need to rush in, wait for $800 at least. $500 is not out of the question.
BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.