Time to start bounce hunting for ETH?!
Updated
Welcome everyone to this holiday update on ETHER!.
You can see that from my last Head and Shoulder analysis that we have gotten a VERY strong move down. Initially, we had some consolidation in this 550-610 range which formed a wedge and furthered the move to the downside. It came down and hit my blue support level at 520 and this 61.8 fib point and it has held up nicely so far. While it's good that my 520 support has held up as support. If we zoom in it just seems to just be forming a bear flag on this 1 hour chart and the bounce to the upside has been minimal... which is concerning. We also need to pay attention to this DAILY MACD, it's crossed into negative territory and looking stronger and RSI has not yet confirmed any sort of bottom. On the smaller time frames we have had confirmations with little move to the upside and MACD is all negative which is something to be concerned with.
That Head and shoulder's pattern was powerful and if we measure it from top to bottom we get roughly a 193 point move. If we move down to a similar magnitude we would get a move down to roughly this 450 area. Do we get a move like that? If we get a move down to this 430-450 area, I would imagine we would have RSI confirming divergence on the daily and it would make for a good entry point.
As much as I want to enter right now for a long position, with a powerful pattern still in full force, MACD going down and RSI to yet confirm divergence I will be sitting on the sidelines for now. This isn't to say that we couldn't not get a move up from this support level. Its very possible and if you are looking for a high risk trade with a tight stop that could possibly be a good entry point. But, it's a sit on the sidelines type situation for me, especially because it's not something I want to worry about while on holiday.
Happy Trading folks,
-Sherem
You can see that from my last Head and Shoulder analysis that we have gotten a VERY strong move down. Initially, we had some consolidation in this 550-610 range which formed a wedge and furthered the move to the downside. It came down and hit my blue support level at 520 and this 61.8 fib point and it has held up nicely so far. While it's good that my 520 support has held up as support. If we zoom in it just seems to just be forming a bear flag on this 1 hour chart and the bounce to the upside has been minimal... which is concerning. We also need to pay attention to this DAILY MACD, it's crossed into negative territory and looking stronger and RSI has not yet confirmed any sort of bottom. On the smaller time frames we have had confirmations with little move to the upside and MACD is all negative which is something to be concerned with.
That Head and shoulder's pattern was powerful and if we measure it from top to bottom we get roughly a 193 point move. If we move down to a similar magnitude we would get a move down to roughly this 450 area. Do we get a move like that? If we get a move down to this 430-450 area, I would imagine we would have RSI confirming divergence on the daily and it would make for a good entry point.
As much as I want to enter right now for a long position, with a powerful pattern still in full force, MACD going down and RSI to yet confirm divergence I will be sitting on the sidelines for now. This isn't to say that we couldn't not get a move up from this support level. Its very possible and if you are looking for a high risk trade with a tight stop that could possibly be a good entry point. But, it's a sit on the sidelines type situation for me, especially because it's not something I want to worry about while on holiday.
Happy Trading folks,
-Sherem
Note
previous analysis for reference: 
Note
Solid bounce off this 520 support area we were watching. Hit the "load new bars" button on my zoomed in chart there and you will notice it also came back up and hit our resistance point dead on at 565. We'll want to keep a close eye out for what it does here.Note
Looks like this bull flag could push up a bit more. Entering in for a long play. Just be mindful, I do martingale my strategies in so I will be holding on to this and entering lower if I need to. Targetting the $600 area.Note
Chart update, please read on the martingale strategy to get a better idea of what I am doing. 
Note
more detail on the other chart, but brief snapshot update - Note
If anyone is looking for more detail with how I trade with my martingale strategy, I did a write up on it - 
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