2018.03.22 What the heck is ETH trying to do? (wave analysis)
Updated
There's many interpretations of what the three Coinbase cryptos (BTC, ETH, LTC) are trying to do, ever since the big bounce on 3/18. Ethereum has its own unique fundamentals holding it down more than BTC and LTC, but it can't beat the gravity of its big cousin (BTC).
One scenario that I feel has the least violation of technical guidelines is shown. Besides the blip up to $587 on 3/18, which was quickly rejected, the count shows that on a smaller timeframe (pink lines), we have completed a 5 wave impulse and are currently in correction mode of this. The problem with this correction is that we won't know how low it can go until it's either done, or goes past the start of our impulse wave, which is $450, in which this story is disproved. (However, I'm looking for it to start going up if it touches $505-507, and would be alerted if it breaches this zone, as there is confluence where this would be a 61.8% retrace of the entire structure, as well as the top of the first impulse wave up.) Therefore, the risk reward from here is no good, and I would consider this a no-trade zone, unless you shorted it from the top of this correction.
If the story sticks (i.e. if the current correction doesn't go past start of the entire impulse), then after this correction is done, we should look for wave 3 of the 5 waves up on the larger timeframe (blue line). I would look for this wave 3 to test and possibly go past the $625-630 resistance zone before putting a corrective wave 4, and a final wave 5. This isn't a sure call, but just watching for what is most likely given the action so far.
Drawings into the future are for illustration only and doesn't represent the actual timeframe that this happens.
-AL168,
March 22, 2018
One scenario that I feel has the least violation of technical guidelines is shown. Besides the blip up to $587 on 3/18, which was quickly rejected, the count shows that on a smaller timeframe (pink lines), we have completed a 5 wave impulse and are currently in correction mode of this. The problem with this correction is that we won't know how low it can go until it's either done, or goes past the start of our impulse wave, which is $450, in which this story is disproved. (However, I'm looking for it to start going up if it touches $505-507, and would be alerted if it breaches this zone, as there is confluence where this would be a 61.8% retrace of the entire structure, as well as the top of the first impulse wave up.) Therefore, the risk reward from here is no good, and I would consider this a no-trade zone, unless you shorted it from the top of this correction.
If the story sticks (i.e. if the current correction doesn't go past start of the entire impulse), then after this correction is done, we should look for wave 3 of the 5 waves up on the larger timeframe (blue line). I would look for this wave 3 to test and possibly go past the $625-630 resistance zone before putting a corrective wave 4, and a final wave 5. This isn't a sure call, but just watching for what is most likely given the action so far.
Drawings into the future are for illustration only and doesn't represent the actual timeframe that this happens.
-AL168,
March 22, 2018
Note
And this is how we got to this point:Trade closed: target reached
bang, it touched $507.84 and bounced up hard. Now trying to break the 55EMA on the 30min timeframe. We'll see if it can form an impulse wave up.
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