Short

Updated

Ethereum

I confirmed bearish impulse thanks to that retest becoming a double top, by folloing impulse with fibonacci we can see it retraced exactly at 0.618 and went down trend confirming 2618 trade, for this trade take profits are at 0 and -0.27. (Double top + 0.618 = 2618)

After more analysis I managed to find a possible Running Flag, I measured bearish impulse by placing 0.236 right below flag, point A at 0.618 and retraced to point B at 0.382, now I expect point C to be between 0.786 and 0.618 from 2618 trade, so I can short all the way down to -0.27 (exactly at previous support). If you dont want to risk anything you can play it safe with a sell stop at 0.236 and still get good pips.

Scroll down to se Related Ideas where I trade other Running Flags and 2618 trades.
Good Trading.

Note

3 Confirmations for Bearish Area

·From B to C there's another flag been formed with ABCs on 1h Chart, by measuring impulse placing 0.236 at top of flag I confirmed point C at 0.618 and is on it's way to -0.27.
·With Trend-Based Fib Extension I measured retracement and have 1.414 - 1.618 around area (Golden Ratio).
·And 0.786 retracement from previous flag on 4hChart.

Also MACD shows how it will be bullish until that area
Good Trading. - 1h Chart

Note

Trade has been completed around 1.618 - 1.414 and it's starting to retrace, now I expect to short around this area, as you can see I marked EMAs indicators so you guys can see what im expecting, also MACD has been completed. - 1h Chart
Good Trading.

Note

Right after 1h ABCs broke resistance, another ABC pattern was formed to confirm bullish impulse and an Elliot Impulse was exactly completed around 0.786 (bearish area).

I measured impulse to confirm bullish impulse and we can see how each minor and major consolidations retraced exactly between fibonacci retracements.

With some Support and Resistance I confirmeed points of interest and now have a retest.

On MACD I show each pattern and analysis form chart. -15min Chart

Note

As we can see it instantly made a bearish candle at retest and began bearish ABCDE pattern, I measured impulse placing 0.236 right below consolidation and have two take profits, -0.27 is exactly at 0.618 from previous measurement which confirms our consolidation area, and -0.618 is around previous support.

MACD confirmed bearish impulse by not retesting like on chart and ABCDE pattern has divergence.
Good Trading. - 15 min Chart

Note

ABCDE pattern has been completed exactly at -0.618!
Now we can see hoe price reached -0.618 leaving a strong wick, this means it has to at least make resistance on previous support or have a type of minor consolidation.
Plan B could break resistance and make a bullish impulse, but if it doesn't we can stick with Plan A and short after consolidation. - 15min Chart
Good Trading.

Note

This is a way to use Fibonacci to your favor and catch retracements, it becomes a whole between 0.618 (Higher High) and -0.618, so I measured impulse from 0.618 to -0.618 and we can see how Running Flag consolidated exactly between both 0.382 retracements.
Running Flag was completed reaching it's -0.27 where -0.618 is, we can see how each point of it's consolidation respected each area as idea on 4h Chart, great example for what im expecting long term.
Back to price we can se how it went straight back to resistance as I said, now let's follow price and expect minor consolidation. -15min Chart
Good Trading.

Note

At this point Plan A looks more possble, we can see a type of ABCs been formed and if you didn't sell at resistance where 0.618 is, then you can place a sell stop at 0.236, if this ABCs gets completed then it confirms long term idea, because it will break 4h trendline. Take profits are at -0.27 and -0.618 reaching previous support, second take profit -0.618 reaches same price as point B of Runnng Flag on 4h Chart (look left structure leaves clues). -15min Chart
Good Trading.

Note

Possible 2618 trade if Plan A doesn't work!
We have a double floor and im predicting this movements on chart, MACD has no retest which means there's a possible bullish impulse.
It's a long shot, but by previous 2618 trades this can happen. -15min Chart
Good Trading.

Note

As we can see 2618 trade was correct!
I followed impulse with fibonacci and waited for retracement at 0.618, where it went bullish straight away, about to reach -0.27 (Fibonacci measurement was modified).
- double floor
- retracement to 0.618
- double floor + 0.618 = 2618
Good Trading. -15min Chart

Note

As we can see 2618 trade was completed at -0.27 and began down trend, we can expect to be bearish at this point.
Also MACD shows resistance and retest, which confirms bearish impulse.-15min Chart
Good Trading.

Note

As we can see 2618 was completed at -0.618 making a strong resistance which gave that bearish impulse, it even broke trendline from 4h Chart by making a clear retest before breaking it. 15 min Chart
Good Trading.

Note

2618 made a perfect consolidation on 15min, forming a flag on 1h Chart for bearish continuation, flag consolidated between 0.236 - 0.618, which retraced exactly at that point leaving some wicks behind.
First TP is at -0.27, also previous support where point B is at from 4h Running Flag.
Second TP at -0.618
3 confirmations for area:
- 1.618 from previous Elliott Impulse
- -0.618 at area
- 0.236 retracement from 4h Chart at that area
Good Trading. -1h Chart

Note

Trade has been completed reaching exactly -0.618, as we can see there was no consolidation, it was a clear bearish impulse, because of Indian cryptocurrency ban announcement.
Now we can see how price bounced from strong area and went bullish, at this point I'll follow price for possible trades.
Good Trading. - 1h Chart

Note

Got a type of ABC formation, I measured bearish impulse placing 0.236 right below consolidation and we can se how it resisted 0.618. Take profit is at -0.27, exactly area i was expecting, can we get to 500-600!?
Good Trading. - 1h Chart

Note

Trade has been completed exactly around 500-600 and bounced. -1h Chart
Good Trading.

Note

Now that we have more structure we can do some technical analysis and get more possibilites.
I measured impulse and we can see how both retracements retraced to 0.618 and 0.5, which bounced around that area and is now resisting previous resistance, at this point Plan A looks more possible, because it has to at least make some kind of consolidation or at least retest on previous support (500-600) to make a bullish impulse, but if doesn't work there's still Plan B to trade bullish at further resistance.
Also MACD shows divergence, which benefits Plan A. -1h Chart
Good Trading

Note

We can see how price bounced on each retracement from fibonacci measurement and made a perfect resistance at top where 0.382 (4h) is, also good area of retracement, because we can see 0.786 from previous bearish impulse at same price as 0.382 (4h).
Have some divergnece on MACD, we can see how it's up trend on chart, but down trend on MACD.
At this point I expect price to be bearish until it reaches 400 with 4 confirmations for area:
- 1.618 from impulse measurement
- -0.27 from 4h Chart analysis
- 1.27 and 1.414 from Trend Extension
- remember -0.618 from 2618 (4h Chart)
Can 4h Running Flag be Completed!?

Note

I measured bearish impulse and came up with two possibilities
Pullback
it can be a pullback now that it retraced at 0.618, we can see take profits -0.27 and -0.618 are around area I was talking about on previous update, even used Trend-Based Fib Extension getting 1.618 exactly at -0.27
Retest
or this could retest at previous resistance confirming strong bearish impulse (double top)
Good Trading. -1h Chart

Note

After more structure was formed I managed to find an Ending Diagonal with by 5 clear points and was just completed at 0.786 with a retest (Double Top)
Ending Diagonal confirmations:
- 1 and 4 at same price
- 5 clear points
- take profits between 0.786 - 0.886

And to confirm bearish impulse we can see there's no retest on MACD, which in previous updates we can see how it works.
Good Trading. -15 min Chart

Note

After more observation I also found a bearish Gartley Pattern inside Ending Diagonal.
Confirmations for Gartley Pattern
- A-B must touch 0.618 but cannot touch 0.786
- B-C must touch 0.236 but cannot exceed A
- D completion at 1.272 (Trend Extension) or 0.786 from normal measurement
- take profits at 0.382 and 0.618 (Fibonacci from A-D)

We can even see how distance between X-D measures 0.786, same retracement as D completion 0.786.
Trend-Based Fib Extension shows how 0.786 respects 1.272 and we can see how 1.618 is at X (the beginning of everything).
Good Trading. -15min Chart

Note

Gartley Pattern has been completed reaching its two take profits around area I was talking about, right when TP2 was reached a pullback was formed, so I measured bearish impulse placing 0.236 right below pullback and we can see 0.618 at top, at this point we can sell to -0.27 where 0 is.
Good Trading. -15min Chart

Note

After all we had our retest at the top from previous updates!

After more consolidation a flag was formed with ABCs pattern and continued with a bullish Eliott Impulse:
- 5 clear points
- 0-1 same distance as 4-5
- 1 and 4 retraced around 0.5 retracement
- point 2 at lowest retracement 0.786
A this point there's always a correction or retest after an Eliott Impulse, what I see now is a retest, we can see on MACD there's no retest at previous resistance, which means we can be down trend.
Good Trading -15min Chart

Note

Expect bearish continuation!
Good Trading. -4h Chart

Note

Right after Elliott Impulse we got a perfect Head & Shoulders formation that gave us our bearish continuation. At right shoulder we can see an ABC pattern, which I measured by placing 0.236 right below consolidation (neckline) and we get point C at 0.786 where it went bearish until second TP -0.618.
At this point there had to be some type of consolidation and this Ending Channel gave us that, we can see on MACD how there's a perfect double top, which confirms bearish continuation.
Good Trading. -1h Chart

Note

We are inside Red Area!!!
We got our 5 points of that bearish channel, and as we know ending channels or ending diagonals are completed at 0.786, so I measured the entire bearish channel and we can see 0.786 is exactly where it all started with that Running Flag at top.
At this point I expect to be bullish around this area
Good Trading. -4h Chart

Note

Better look at Channel
Good Trading - 4h Chart

Note

Now we are inside red area, so we can look for better entries.
We can see how there was some type of consolidation at top before it entered red area and began bearish, I followed bearish impulse by measuring pullback, which was completed at the bottom at that -0.27.
Now we have a 2618 Setup
- double floor
- measure bullish impulse
- retracement at 0.618 and buy
- TP at -0.27
Double Floor + 0.618 = 2618
Good Trading - 15min Chart
- double top
- measure bearish impulse
- retracement at 0.618 and sell
- TP at -0.27 (previous support)
Double Top + 0.618 = 2618

Note

2618 made lower low at 0.786 - 0.886 area and went bullish straight to first TP at 0 retracement, now I expect some type of consolidation before we reach -0.27, remember 2618 are formed inside consolidations.
Good Trading- 15 min Chart

Note

Price didn't reach -0.27, but made pretty good resistance at 0 retracement (first TP), which gave us that ABC formation for our bearish impulse, we can see price went bearish at point C and formed a flag,
I measured flag by placing 0.236 below consolidation and got resistance at 0.618 for bearish continuation towards -0.27, price respected that area forming second flag for another entry.
I measured second flag by placing 0.236 below consolidation and got a 0.236 - 0.5 type of flag with horizontal movement, used Trend-Based Fib Extension to confirm each support with 1.272 - 1.618 (golden ratio)
At this point Ill be scalping until I find Lower Low for bullish long term, remember we can still go lower!
Good Trading- 15 min Chart

Note

We got our bullish impulse at 0.786 with a pretty good resistance, if it doesn't go bearish at this point, I expect price to make another Higher High for new structure.
Also MACD respected perfectly at -0.27 with a double floor and bounced.
Good Trading. -15min Chart

Note

Bearish Continuation
Good Trading, -15min Chart

Note

Reached 1.618 at top, possible berish continuation at this point
Good Trading. - 15min Chart

Note

We got our bearish impulse completed at 0 retracement, now I expect some bullish movement inside major consolidation for more structure.
Good Trading. - 15min Chart

Note

Possible bearish continuation to -0.27, I measured bearish impulse by placing 0.236 right below ABC formation and got point C at 0.618 where previous 0.786 is.
MACD shows divergence
Good Trading. -15min Chart

Trade closed: target reached

DanielParra99

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DanielParra99

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