EURGBP range exhaustion idea (D)
Updated
In 2015 November the Euro began a major bull run lasting to 2017 August, with some retracements and ranges, still making the highest high since 2009 at around the 0.9300 mark. The Cable took charge both on technical and fundamentals, causing a over 300 pip one-sided fall in about a week. Since the fall bulls and bears have been duking it out blow for blow since late September 2017 and have been trading in a range. For every battle at 23.6 fib support, bears have been pushing just a little bit further down and bulls have been exhausted earlier at lower and lower highs during their rallies (mostly coinciding around the 0.75 median in the pitchfork ). All culminating in a last-ditch effort to rally early March which was only met with a stronger push by the bears, finally seemingly breaking the 23.6 fib level and remaining below.
The technical outlook looks weighted to the shortside with risk to the upside. That said we’re still trading in a range and the market did not show much determination in the 23.6 fib level breakdown, meaning the market is still uncertain which direction to take and may be waiting for the fundamentals coming out the next 2 weeks. We may be approaching a possible opportunity for a range break or range continuation trade.
The calendar the coming couple of weeks features, among other things, speeches both by ECB chairman Draghi and BOE governor Carney. The result of which could be the nudge for the pair either to the range's upside as a range continuation trade, or the range may break to the downside. If price were to break the 0.75 median at around 0.8760/80, we may be looking at a run to the upper 1.0 median at the 0.8860/90 area. However, if price breaks down through the current range Low at 0.86679 we may be looking at another fall for the Cable, paving the way for targets like 38.2 fib retracement at 0.84182.
Keep in mind the market seems to be showing exhaustion but still no clear intention. We want to see accelerated moves in any direction, signalling market determination and trade confirmation. Whichever outlook you hold, approach with caution.
Good luck out there and have fun.
The technical outlook looks weighted to the shortside with risk to the upside. That said we’re still trading in a range and the market did not show much determination in the 23.6 fib level breakdown, meaning the market is still uncertain which direction to take and may be waiting for the fundamentals coming out the next 2 weeks. We may be approaching a possible opportunity for a range break or range continuation trade.
The calendar the coming couple of weeks features, among other things, speeches both by ECB chairman Draghi and BOE governor Carney. The result of which could be the nudge for the pair either to the range's upside as a range continuation trade, or the range may break to the downside. If price were to break the 0.75 median at around 0.8760/80, we may be looking at a run to the upper 1.0 median at the 0.8860/90 area. However, if price breaks down through the current range Low at 0.86679 we may be looking at another fall for the Cable, paving the way for targets like 38.2 fib retracement at 0.84182.
Keep in mind the market seems to be showing exhaustion but still no clear intention. We want to see accelerated moves in any direction, signalling market determination and trade confirmation. Whichever outlook you hold, approach with caution.
Good luck out there and have fun.
Note
The pair is trading at the current range Low after a one-sided drop. Price looks since to be consolidating. perhaps before making a break down, meaning the there's an opportunity to ride the wave down.Note
Price looks to have broken the lower range, though not as cleanly as could be desired.Note
We're looking at near-term price action for possible entries.Note
Price meandered after breaking the lower range. Bulls then came in charging resuming the range for now.
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