Euro / Japanese YenShort
EURJPY Top-Down Analysis
Hello Traders,
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of GBPNZD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 43 - 19 Oct
M > Price is moving in a triangle. It moved up to test monthly resistance that coincides with monthly supply zone and resistance of triangle trend-line. We saw a W formation and price dropped to test its neck and complete the formation. This level also coincided with 0.382 Fib level on last monthly bullish impulse and 0.618 Fib level on weekly impulse.
W > We saw an M formation and as expected price moved up to test its neck and complete the formation. Price in fact moved further up to test weekly support and faced rejection.
D > We expected price to move beyond weekly support and test weekly supply zone to gather more liquidity before turning bearish but price faced rejection at weekly support to start bearish move. This level coincides with 0.618 Fib level on daily bearish move. Price dropped till LH created during its last bullish move and started pull up. We expect price to continue dropping after the pull back.
As per COT EUR saw closure of Long and addition of Short for the 2nd time in a row, reducing net positions. EXY however improved its position for the said week because we saw reduction in overall open interest, it did not allow its position to slip. EXY was weak last week. JPY saw addition of few Long but more Short positions reducing net positions further. JXY was lost its position for the said week but ended with a Doji. However JXY improved its position last week but again ended with a Doji.
Does closure of Long and addition of Short for two consecutive week for EUR suggest any direction? Answer is NO, not as off now. Overall EUR has huge quantum of net positions for past 2 quarters, with much more open Long positions than Short, 35% vs 9% for non-commercials. Institutions can sway market either way in short term with few addition or closure Long/ Short positions till the time they hold their strong Long positions. EUR will continue to be strong unless we see major chunk of Short added for Institutions. Hence for all EUR pairs it is recommended to follow only short term trend with good risk management.
4H > Price is making LH and LL, however last LL coincides with daily demand zone. This could be a reversal sign or price can continue to drop further after making LH, that it has just made.
As recommended with all EUR pairs, trade cautiously with trend and good price management.
Pair Correlation > EURJPY has positive correlation with EURUSD, XAGUSD, AUDUSD and CHFJPY.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of GBPNZD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 43 - 19 Oct
M > Price is moving in a triangle. It moved up to test monthly resistance that coincides with monthly supply zone and resistance of triangle trend-line. We saw a W formation and price dropped to test its neck and complete the formation. This level also coincided with 0.382 Fib level on last monthly bullish impulse and 0.618 Fib level on weekly impulse.
W > We saw an M formation and as expected price moved up to test its neck and complete the formation. Price in fact moved further up to test weekly support and faced rejection.
D > We expected price to move beyond weekly support and test weekly supply zone to gather more liquidity before turning bearish but price faced rejection at weekly support to start bearish move. This level coincides with 0.618 Fib level on daily bearish move. Price dropped till LH created during its last bullish move and started pull up. We expect price to continue dropping after the pull back.
As per COT EUR saw closure of Long and addition of Short for the 2nd time in a row, reducing net positions. EXY however improved its position for the said week because we saw reduction in overall open interest, it did not allow its position to slip. EXY was weak last week. JPY saw addition of few Long but more Short positions reducing net positions further. JXY was lost its position for the said week but ended with a Doji. However JXY improved its position last week but again ended with a Doji.
Does closure of Long and addition of Short for two consecutive week for EUR suggest any direction? Answer is NO, not as off now. Overall EUR has huge quantum of net positions for past 2 quarters, with much more open Long positions than Short, 35% vs 9% for non-commercials. Institutions can sway market either way in short term with few addition or closure Long/ Short positions till the time they hold their strong Long positions. EUR will continue to be strong unless we see major chunk of Short added for Institutions. Hence for all EUR pairs it is recommended to follow only short term trend with good risk management.
4H > Price is making LH and LL, however last LL coincides with daily demand zone. This could be a reversal sign or price can continue to drop further after making LH, that it has just made.
As recommended with all EUR pairs, trade cautiously with trend and good price management.
Pair Correlation > EURJPY has positive correlation with EURUSD, XAGUSD, AUDUSD and CHFJPY.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.