Debt markets signalling weaker EUR
A large volume of EUR-denominated bonds (near 2 trn yen of French bonds) were sold in March by Japan in the time when EUR/JPY peaked. While it may be hedged, it sends a weak signal on euro zone growth and sentiment particularly on the backdrop of lock-downs. On the contrary, the Japanese have been loading up on over a record 5trn yen worth of US sovereign debt.
Options market are bearish the pair
Looking across bloomberg data, it would appear that the market holding near 3x the volume of EUR/JPY puts vs calls, much of which are around strikes concentrated around the 114-115 levels.