EURNZD - 1 - 5 Feb 21 Week Trade Plan

Updated

Previous Month : Bearish
Previous Week : Bearish
Daily : Slightly Bullish

- EURNZD since 5Jan still ranging between 6980 / 6840 after a long term bearish trend since the top created on March 2020.

- The COT report still showing that 68% of institutional positions are Long NZD which is a bit less than last week, but still at it's highest levels since 3 years compared to 32% Short positions. This is translated on the chart with EURNZD sustaining it's bearish trend and we are seeing support levels broken every week.

- Seasonality showing that NZD should be ranging during Feb after reaching the top during Jan by reaching 6770 sup and slightly to the weak side.

- So with Current Range, COT and Seasonality; i'd expect EURNZD to be ranging and slightly moving up if we formed Support above 6980.

- Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs.

- We have important news for NZD on Wednesday for Employment and historical data shows 200 pip range on this news.

Note

1 Feb Short Trade = Loss -10

Based on the 2PM 4H candle, Waited for rejection at 6880 but took a weak confirmation of a 30min instead of the 1H. the 30min closed bearish below the previous.

Trade went into profit for a bit and then EN retraced. I closed the whole trade after reaching levels above the 30min confirmation candle.

Entry 15:

Entry 30:

Trade Exit:

Note

5 Feb - EURNZD based on Asia H/L Short = L -9

Overall trend is bearish with Asia 4H closed bearish and during Europe open and Pre-London a resistance formed which created the 4H wick. PL broken AL and closed below it after Res formation.
Went into Short after rejecting the Asia lower resistance formed with SL above 4H Res targeting 6658.
Reaction point did hold EN a bit but with 1st hour of London closed below it which made me in profit and confident that we will keep moving down.
EN started retracing to AL after creating low at 6696, but it did close a 15min in Asia range which made me move my SL to a lower level at the previous 30m Res formed during Asia.
It hit the new SL with -9.

Entry 30m :

15min:

Trade Close :

Amr_Sadek

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