EUR/NZD Fundamental + Technical Macroeconomic Update | 3.14.23
The Euro continued its upward momentum, trading above $1.07 and approaching its highest level since February 14th. This is in contrast to the two-month low of $1.05 it reached on March 8th, which was due to concerns about the US financial system following the collapse of SVB. Despite US authorities' efforts to limit the damage, investors are concerned that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious approach and only deliver a 25 basis point hike at the March meeting, instead of the previously expected 50 basis point hike. This is because of the potential risk to global growth caused by the turmoil in the US banking sector. Investors are also awaiting the European Central Bank's policy statement on Thursday. Although the bank is expected to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points, there are concerns that it may adopt a more dovish tone due to ongoing risks to financial stability.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index rebounded from over two-month lows, rising 0.8% to above 7,060 on Wednesday. The gains were led by technology and banking stocks, following a similar trend on Wall Street, as investors felt that the worst of the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had passed. The US inflation report, which came in line with expectations, also calmed the market’s nerves, and investors are now betting on a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week. Although Australian consumer sentiment remained at historic lows in March due to concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the broader economy, business sentiment dropped to a three-month low in February.
The Hang Seng Index soared by 346 points or 1.8% to 19,594 on Wednesday, recovering from a 2.3% plunge the day before. This plunge had seen the index hit its lowest in more than three months. Investors are optimistic that China's economic activity will strengthen after official data showed that industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all grew during the first two months of the year. The People's Bank of China added more liquidity than expected while holding a key lending rate, adding to the positive sentiment.
WTI crude futures rose above $72 per barrel, rebounding from three-month lows, as OPEC raised its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth in 2023. This is in light of the country’s exit from the zero-Covid policy. However, OPEC left its outlook for global demand unchanged, citing potential downside risks for global growth. The group said that it would stick to production cuts agreed in October until the end of the year, according to Saudi Arabia energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. The US oil benchmark, however, remains down more than 5% this week due to the turmoil in the US banking sector, and the prospect of another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week continues to weigh on sentiment. Investors are now looking ahead to the IEA’s monthly report and official data on US crude inventories on Wednesday.
Soybean prices eased below $15 per bushel, moving further away from a seven-month high of $15.55 hit on February 13th. This is because of the expectation that supply will remain strong, boosted by large crops in Brazil. The country's soybean production is estimated to reach a historical 153 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022/23, unchanged from last month, and higher by 24 mmt (18 percent) from last season’s drought-affected crop. Meanwhile, concerns over Argentina's supplies will continue, as the country's soybean harvest forecasts have been cut several times over the past months after the South American nation fell into the grip of its worst drought in over 60 years. The USDA has slashed its projection for Argentine production to 33 million tons, down 20% from its February estimate and marking the smallest crop since 2009. Crush is also expected to hit the lowest level in over a decade. The Hang Seng soared 346 points or 1.8% to 19,594 around midday on Wednesday, mostly recovering from a plunge of 2.3% the day before that saw the index hit its lowest in more than 3-months, amid signs that China's economic activity strengthened during the first two months of the year, with official data showing that industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all grew. Meantime, the PBoC today added more liquidity than expected while holding a key lending rate unchanged and stepping up financing support for private small firms. An upbeat session on Wall Street overnight also boosted sentiment, with traders trying to shake off bank woes in the US, while speculation grew that the Federal Reserve may go for a smaller rate hike when it meets next week. All sectors supported the upturn, with financials, tech, and consumers all gaining over 1%. Innovent Biologics climbed 9.8%, followed by Giant Biogene Hlds. (9.3%), Orient Express Intl. (8.4%), and Longfor Group (4.2%).
The S&P/ASX 200 Index rebounded from over two-month lows, rising 0.8% to above 7,060 on Wednesday. The gains were led by technology and banking stocks, following a similar trend on Wall Street, as investors felt that the worst of the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had passed. The US inflation report, which came in line with expectations, also calmed the market’s nerves, and investors are now betting on a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week. Although Australian consumer sentiment remained at historic lows in March due to concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the broader economy, business sentiment dropped to a three-month low in February.
The Hang Seng Index soared by 346 points or 1.8% to 19,594 on Wednesday, recovering from a 2.3% plunge the day before. This plunge had seen the index hit its lowest in more than three months. Investors are optimistic that China's economic activity will strengthen after official data showed that industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all grew during the first two months of the year. The People's Bank of China added more liquidity than expected while holding a key lending rate, adding to the positive sentiment.
WTI crude futures rose above $72 per barrel, rebounding from three-month lows, as OPEC raised its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth in 2023. This is in light of the country’s exit from the zero-Covid policy. However, OPEC left its outlook for global demand unchanged, citing potential downside risks for global growth. The group said that it would stick to production cuts agreed in October until the end of the year, according to Saudi Arabia energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. The US oil benchmark, however, remains down more than 5% this week due to the turmoil in the US banking sector, and the prospect of another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week continues to weigh on sentiment. Investors are now looking ahead to the IEA’s monthly report and official data on US crude inventories on Wednesday.
Soybean prices eased below $15 per bushel, moving further away from a seven-month high of $15.55 hit on February 13th. This is because of the expectation that supply will remain strong, boosted by large crops in Brazil. The country's soybean production is estimated to reach a historical 153 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022/23, unchanged from last month, and higher by 24 mmt (18 percent) from last season’s drought-affected crop. Meanwhile, concerns over Argentina's supplies will continue, as the country's soybean harvest forecasts have been cut several times over the past months after the South American nation fell into the grip of its worst drought in over 60 years. The USDA has slashed its projection for Argentine production to 33 million tons, down 20% from its February estimate and marking the smallest crop since 2009. Crush is also expected to hit the lowest level in over a decade. The Hang Seng soared 346 points or 1.8% to 19,594 around midday on Wednesday, mostly recovering from a plunge of 2.3% the day before that saw the index hit its lowest in more than 3-months, amid signs that China's economic activity strengthened during the first two months of the year, with official data showing that industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all grew. Meantime, the PBoC today added more liquidity than expected while holding a key lending rate unchanged and stepping up financing support for private small firms. An upbeat session on Wall Street overnight also boosted sentiment, with traders trying to shake off bank woes in the US, while speculation grew that the Federal Reserve may go for a smaller rate hike when it meets next week. All sectors supported the upturn, with financials, tech, and consumers all gaining over 1%. Innovent Biologics climbed 9.8%, followed by Giant Biogene Hlds. (9.3%), Orient Express Intl. (8.4%), and Longfor Group (4.2%).
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