Long

Bullish Eur/USD pattern

Updated

There is a clear bullish pattern on H4 and H1 timeframes and buying dips between 1.108 and 1.111
SL is at 1.1065 as going below it will takes us much lower with possible 1.099 touchdown.

1.11 is a strong support with MA200 supporting it. Anticipated targets TP1 -1.117, TP2 1.1199 and TP3 1.1215

Note

DXY is at resistance level on H1 and H4 as well which is supportive to this idea.

Note

Currently we have a support at 1.1075. If price goes and closes below it at least on an H1 timeframe - it may not work well for buying. SL should be a few pips below 1.1065 but overall - this still looks like a good buying spot at least on a short term.

I do not like W1 and D1 charts opposing each other. Tight SL is recommended as today's NFP should dictate the move.

Trade active

First entry made, but as mentioned earlier - not buying below 1.1075. If this does not work out - Our next chance to buy will be at 1.1042

Note

Daily MA50 is where a 61.8% retracement from a move up from 1.098 to 1.124 meets and this stands at 1.1075-1.1080. Price bounced up just 7 pips above that level and I believe my entry was well timed.

On H1 chart we can already see 5 fractal pattern being formed where on the left we see 3 candles each going lower, on the right a pinbar in the middle and a bullish candle to the right. When this hourly candle closes and if it stays as is - we should be good with our buy position.

If price breaks above 1.116 - it will continue to the 1.1215-1.124 zone. Based on Fibonacci - we may see - 1.1284 and 1.134 if price spikes above 1.124 and is not rejected at 1.1251

So my suggestion would be to monitor 1.116 and take only partial profits at 1.1215 allowing higher targets to be reached.

Note

For those who missed the buy entry (mine is 1.10872) - is best to wait for a possible reentry point at 1.1096 which may be available within the next hour. But otherwise the buying idea looks ok so far based on H1 candles.

Note

Market was generous and gave a second entry at almost the same spot - and a second position is working off 1.10889

SL has been moved to positive/break even territory just below 1.109 which can be moved just below 1.11 once we get above 1.11251

Note

Still going well and we only need to break out of 1.114-1.1090 channel to the upside. Once broke to the upside, another buy on retracement near 1.114 can be looked for.

Note

The pair is still making higher high and higher lows. I took partial profit as we have reached 1.1075-1.1080 band mentioned Jan 10 and this was a good point to take some profit. The rest can stay on break even as we should see 1.1195-1.1215 coming next.

Note

Price is going down and if it breaks 1.109 support - uptrend will change to downtrend and my remaining positions will close at break even .

Trade closed: stop reached

The remaining position has been closed as we need to see more price action. There is bullish pattern forming on H4 just around 1.1065 and we
ll see when we get there.

Note

It looks like I should not have closed the remaining positions after taking nearly 90 pip on the ones booked near 1.117. I have reviewed where my mistake was and one Fibonacci calculation is showing a rise to 1.129 and the other 1.1255 and SL should be below 1.102 as that is D1 bottom trendline.

No big regrets as still got profit from closed positions but will have to look for a new entry now and a new idea.

Erland

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.