EUR/USD - Pandora's box is open
In all ordinary circumstances my advice here would be to buy at market within proper limits of risk mgmt. We are entering at the bottom of a wide range in EURUSD which will require a large purse and strong nerve.
For the sake of transparency, here we are assuming the dollar leg has finished and we are trading a pullback towards the middle of the range, timing wise the next short term line in the sand is ECB's meeting at the end of May. Here we may be opening the tomb of a great swing ahead into the 1.33+ levels.
Inflation has slowed in both the Eurozone and the US, here lies the danger to my thesis. Failure from the ECB to end their QE programme this year will short circuit all expectations and send EURUSD down towards the 1.12xx handle in no time.
For the sake of transparency, here we are assuming the dollar leg has finished and we are trading a pullback towards the middle of the range, timing wise the next short term line in the sand is ECB's meeting at the end of May. Here we may be opening the tomb of a great swing ahead into the 1.33+ levels.
Inflation has slowed in both the Eurozone and the US, here lies the danger to my thesis. Failure from the ECB to end their QE programme this year will short circuit all expectations and send EURUSD down towards the 1.12xx handle in no time.
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