EURUSD. Please welcome The Parity
Updated
After breaking out of a triangle, EURUSD pair is having the last correction before heading to the long and very expected level of 1:1 .
Unfortunately, that is not all for EUR: as a general rule, once the triangle is broken, we should expect a movement similar to the height of a triangle towards the direction of the breakout. In this case, the official breakout was at 1.06 zone, therefore, the final target is around 0.9218.
For me, that would mean the end of Wave 3 in a bigger Wave 5. This means: after we get to 0.9218 zone, we will have a correction, probably to 1.00-1.02, and then one last wave down to 0.87.
From the fundamentals point of view, what could trigger such a drastic movement down on EUR and do not affect the SPX? The answer that occur to me is Greece.
Greek default would mean a bank crisis in the Europe. Names like DB, Credit Suisse, UBS, Santander... These and much more are fully loaded with greek bonds which, in case of a default, will mean an urgent neccessity of a bail-in and other rescue operations. Obviosuly, this crisis in Europe would affect the USA but I believe stocks will continue with their bullish run as more and more capital will head from Europe to the US stocks market.
Check also the European Financials ETF which is about to head to a massive downwards movement:
Actions:
I will short 1.0750 and this will be a mid-tern investment: I expect a target zone around 0.9250-0.9218 to be reached before the end of the year
Unfortunately, that is not all for EUR: as a general rule, once the triangle is broken, we should expect a movement similar to the height of a triangle towards the direction of the breakout. In this case, the official breakout was at 1.06 zone, therefore, the final target is around 0.9218.
For me, that would mean the end of Wave 3 in a bigger Wave 5. This means: after we get to 0.9218 zone, we will have a correction, probably to 1.00-1.02, and then one last wave down to 0.87.
From the fundamentals point of view, what could trigger such a drastic movement down on EUR and do not affect the SPX? The answer that occur to me is Greece.
Greek default would mean a bank crisis in the Europe. Names like DB, Credit Suisse, UBS, Santander... These and much more are fully loaded with greek bonds which, in case of a default, will mean an urgent neccessity of a bail-in and other rescue operations. Obviosuly, this crisis in Europe would affect the USA but I believe stocks will continue with their bullish run as more and more capital will head from Europe to the US stocks market.
Check also the European Financials ETF which is about to head to a massive downwards movement:
Actions:
I will short 1.0750 and this will be a mid-tern investment: I expect a target zone around 0.9250-0.9218 to be reached before the end of the year
Note
Update: expecting a continuation in a EUR run, therefore, short from 1.075 will be closed once the Butterfly pattern targets are hit. Afterwards, will long EURUSD to 1.095-1.102 and short from thereTrade active
Updated view of the current movementNote
EURUSD against EUFNNote
Note
Looks like we just need a little push and Parity will be question of days Note
Wasn´t a Triangle but a flat correction. Now we have to finish a Wave C which would be somewhere where the Gartley pattern ends. Lookd like tomorrow´s ECB will be the last tango in Frankfurt
Please, follow your strategy! Always!
If there is no strategy that has proven itself successful, please do not trade with real money!
If there is no strategy that has proven itself successful, please do not trade with real money!
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