EURUSD bullflag final wave down formation
Updated
With Mario Draghi on the Jackson's hole symposium ready to speak, i believe that Draghi does really have the intention to talk the euro down with a dovish stance as a strong euro wont benefit much to the european government and it's economy. The dollar's slow rally seems to be gaining much traction as fed officials gives hints on planning a reduction of the balance sheet as well as a need for another interest rate hike this year, which might support a weaker euro against dollar for the time being.
The Long term trend is bullish, but however RSI shows bearish bias and divergence favours the bears in short term. A recent trade down below the 1.17 level and bouncing back up from 1.1662 back to 1.18 level shows that there are plenty of buyers below. there could be a possibility that there is a need for a retest of support at the 1.16 area , as support levels below does not constitute hints of a strong trend reversal such as a double bottom or a morning doji star. we do see a clear channel down currently and a break above 1.18278 might spell an end to the channel down and confirming a long term bullish flag.
As such , my current SL is at 1.1829 with my targets at 1.16843 (38.2%) and 1.16131 (50%) respectively. there is a slight chance that 1.16843 might hold and turn this channel down into an Inverse Heads & shoulder so do take note to trade closely when it reaches below the 1.17 handle.
Lastly, a trade through a key support at 1.15 might turn the overall trend into bearish and might bring it down to the 1.13-1.14 area. in terms of overnight swaps on a long term basis, shorting this pair might give value due to the low interest rate of the ECB and a slightly higher interest rate of the fed.
The Long term trend is bullish, but however RSI shows bearish bias and divergence favours the bears in short term. A recent trade down below the 1.17 level and bouncing back up from 1.1662 back to 1.18 level shows that there are plenty of buyers below. there could be a possibility that there is a need for a retest of support at the 1.16 area , as support levels below does not constitute hints of a strong trend reversal such as a double bottom or a morning doji star. we do see a clear channel down currently and a break above 1.18278 might spell an end to the channel down and confirming a long term bullish flag.
As such , my current SL is at 1.1829 with my targets at 1.16843 (38.2%) and 1.16131 (50%) respectively. there is a slight chance that 1.16843 might hold and turn this channel down into an Inverse Heads & shoulder so do take note to trade closely when it reaches below the 1.17 handle.
Lastly, a trade through a key support at 1.15 might turn the overall trend into bearish and might bring it down to the 1.13-1.14 area. in terms of overnight swaps on a long term basis, shorting this pair might give value due to the low interest rate of the ECB and a slightly higher interest rate of the fed.
Note
P.s : i would love to see trump to shut up as wellNote
Buy order added @1.183 , 2x my current short position !Trade closed: stop reached
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