Breakout or Fakeout

EURUSD Price action appears to want to break out of the upper trading range set back in May 2015, but it's inability to push through above 1.1463 is a concern here. The rising trend continuation seems awfully similar to the technicals set in late October of 2015, wanting to breakout only to reverse harshly lower. Same set-up here ? Furthermore, the other currencies ; like USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF, were not positioned at lower ends as they are today, a slight reversal of these currencies can come at any time & poof goes down the EURUSD. Also, the recent rise in XAUUSD had pushed the EURUSD along the rising trendline, but a reversal or waning of XAUUSD could put downward pressure on the EURUSD. A possible repeat of October's price action is possible here.

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