Smart Money Concepts swing trading odyssey|Ep.12|8R long|EURUSD
Updated
Back yet again with the Phase C continuation limit order entry model for swing trading, using ICT's SMC toolkit. This is again being documented as a reference for my future YouTube channel.
This description took too long to write, sorry if price has moved away from where I got tagged in...
So, these Phase C swing trades are proving to be a bane - the last one on Gold went sideways for about 2 weeks leading to me closing it today before inflation news with DXY showing weakness.
Fed sentiment: Hawkish? The bond market says another 0.25% rate hike is likely and I think it has been priced in for a while. US inflation slowly coming down; 5% down to 4% y/y. Month on month it's not improving though and employment is only just starting to maybe drop, meaning room for another interest rate hike to tighten the economy.
Trader sentiment: risk on (inflation easing + stock market rallying)
On the Euro side, employment seems to be going up, and inflation is still too high. A rate hike is practically a given with the ECB having room to do it.
Overall sentiment: The 0.25% rate hike seems to be baked in, and in spite of that, EURUSD continues to form a technical pattern that implies it's going higher. If the Fed doesn't make the expected rate hike, it will likely just accelerate Euro's move up.
I am forecasting a technical move up more than a fundamental one. At LEAST to fill in the weekly FVG - if not breaking the last supply zone creating a new high for the year - but with the Fed expected to hold rates ~5% until possibly 2024 v.s. the pace of Europe's hikes and their stagnant GDP putting a limiter on their hikes, right now I don't see how EURUSD could rally much higher than that (but maybe this is just a lack of understanding on my part?)
Technicals: W pattern formed on daily TF creating new demand zone. SMT divergence with the DXY gives me confidence that market makers won't push price lower during FOMC tomorrow.
Entry: Phase C pullback into discount/50% of 4h swing low/daily bullish OB. As I said above, the SMT divs with Dollar gives me confidence to put my stop below the last 4h swing low despite news tomorrow, which could give an opportunity to scale in with bigger size, providing Euro doesn't just slip 60 pips in the blink of an eye.
Exit/Terminus: mid-point of the gap (volume imbalance) on the weekly TF + old weekly high, which is an 8R trade. I plan to partial at the last supply zone which begins at ~$1.09500.
Confidence: 7.5/10 for directional bias & 6/10 that they won't stop me out during FOMC tomorrow 😋.
Here is the weekly chart. Notice the red box which is the volume imbalance I am using as my Terminus/DOL:
This description took too long to write, sorry if price has moved away from where I got tagged in...
So, these Phase C swing trades are proving to be a bane - the last one on Gold went sideways for about 2 weeks leading to me closing it today before inflation news with DXY showing weakness.
Fed sentiment: Hawkish? The bond market says another 0.25% rate hike is likely and I think it has been priced in for a while. US inflation slowly coming down; 5% down to 4% y/y. Month on month it's not improving though and employment is only just starting to maybe drop, meaning room for another interest rate hike to tighten the economy.
Trader sentiment: risk on (inflation easing + stock market rallying)
On the Euro side, employment seems to be going up, and inflation is still too high. A rate hike is practically a given with the ECB having room to do it.
Overall sentiment: The 0.25% rate hike seems to be baked in, and in spite of that, EURUSD continues to form a technical pattern that implies it's going higher. If the Fed doesn't make the expected rate hike, it will likely just accelerate Euro's move up.
I am forecasting a technical move up more than a fundamental one. At LEAST to fill in the weekly FVG - if not breaking the last supply zone creating a new high for the year - but with the Fed expected to hold rates ~5% until possibly 2024 v.s. the pace of Europe's hikes and their stagnant GDP putting a limiter on their hikes, right now I don't see how EURUSD could rally much higher than that (but maybe this is just a lack of understanding on my part?)
Technicals: W pattern formed on daily TF creating new demand zone. SMT divergence with the DXY gives me confidence that market makers won't push price lower during FOMC tomorrow.
Entry: Phase C pullback into discount/50% of 4h swing low/daily bullish OB. As I said above, the SMT divs with Dollar gives me confidence to put my stop below the last 4h swing low despite news tomorrow, which could give an opportunity to scale in with bigger size, providing Euro doesn't just slip 60 pips in the blink of an eye.
Exit/Terminus: mid-point of the gap (volume imbalance) on the weekly TF + old weekly high, which is an 8R trade. I plan to partial at the last supply zone which begins at ~$1.09500.
Confidence: 7.5/10 for directional bias & 6/10 that they won't stop me out during FOMC tomorrow 😋.
Here is the weekly chart. Notice the red box which is the volume imbalance I am using as my Terminus/DOL:
Note
The markets gave another opportunity to get in with that previous day's low/Asia sweep into the Daily +Order BlockNote
You can see the Daily +OB on the daily timeframe holding price up:Note
So one day in; we've moved 73 pips into profit so far. This gives me a lot of confidence that I called the trade correctly ahead of Fed conference this evening.ICT's concepts are just beautiful. 😥
Note
I've just realised the source I was using for the Fed Funds rate was behind (still showing 5%!!), so when I said the Fed would likely hike to 5.25%, I had forgotten they had already done it. Ugh.. how embarrassing.... I bet at least ONE PERSON reads all this!!I guess my fundamental analysis was off, which makes me wonder what would have happened if they had made a hike to 5.5%. Would my trade idea have failed?
Note
Target 1 hit; 159 pips.The speed at which it's moving though, I don't think I will take first partial until it breaks the highs.
Note
Target reached for a cool 8R. I have been putting in hours into studying ICTs material every day for the last few weeks; going forward my swing trading & chart mark-ups should see some sweet improvements.
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