7 March’s NFP was an important catalyst for euro-dollar to move up more even though it generally wasn’t much weaker than expected. It must be stressed that the last few days have been truly exceptional: EURUSD is on track for its best weekly performance in around 16 years. Recent news of increased spending on defence and revised limits on national debt in the eurozone generally but specifically in Germany and France has also been positive for the euro.
Shifting expectations for monetary policy have also brought strength, with the Fed becoming somewhat more dovish and the ECB seemingly slightly less in the last few days. The ECB’s single cut on 6 March was widely expected but comments from the Executive Board about policy being less restrictive have been interpreted by many traders as signalling a pause to cuts.
As for gold, the short to medium-term target here seems pretty obvious, being around $1.10. The 61.8% monthly Fibonacci retracement around $1.13 looks too aggressive even amid strong sentiment. However, the price is extremely strong overbought relative to the norm, so traders should be prepared for a retracement in the next few days.
The 100% Fibo around $1.07 could function as a relatively short-term support in the runup to American inflation on 12 March. Now that the price has extended far above most of the moving averages, it’s more difficult for a potential new buyer to find a good entry. However, if the price reaches $1.093 and initially retraces, there might be an opportunity if sentiment holds and upcoming data aren’t notably surprising.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
Shifting expectations for monetary policy have also brought strength, with the Fed becoming somewhat more dovish and the ECB seemingly slightly less in the last few days. The ECB’s single cut on 6 March was widely expected but comments from the Executive Board about policy being less restrictive have been interpreted by many traders as signalling a pause to cuts.
As for gold, the short to medium-term target here seems pretty obvious, being around $1.10. The 61.8% monthly Fibonacci retracement around $1.13 looks too aggressive even amid strong sentiment. However, the price is extremely strong overbought relative to the norm, so traders should be prepared for a retracement in the next few days.
The 100% Fibo around $1.07 could function as a relatively short-term support in the runup to American inflation on 12 March. Now that the price has extended far above most of the moving averages, it’s more difficult for a potential new buyer to find a good entry. However, if the price reaches $1.093 and initially retraces, there might be an opportunity if sentiment holds and upcoming data aren’t notably surprising.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.