EUR/USD remains in a consolidation phase below 1.0900 in the European session on Monday, as traders exercise caution ahead of key economic data releases. The pair is navigating a narrow range as the market awaits the US Retail Sales data and the German parliamentary vote on fiscal reforms.
Technical outlook: Consolidation continues
EUR/USD is exhibiting signs of indecisiveness, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering slightly above 50 and the price fluctuating around the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. These technical signals suggest a lack of strong directional bias in the near term.
Key support levels:
1.0850 - 1.0860: Confluence of the 50-period SMA and the 200-week SMA, marking immediate downside support.
1.0800: A static and psychological round number level.
1.0730: Supported by the 200-day SMA, a critical longer-term trend indicator.
Key resistance levels:
1.0900: A strong psychological barrier and static resistance level.
1.0940: Static resistance from previous price action.
1.1000: A major round number and historical resistance level.
Fundamental factors affecting EUR/USD
US Retail Sales Data (February Release): Expected to rise by 0.7%, rebounding from a 0.9% contraction in January. A weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on the US Dollar (USD), while a stronger report may provide support.
Federal Reserve Meeting (March 19): Market participants are reluctant to take large positions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision. The current consensus expects the Fed to maintain rates at 4.5%, which aligns with the previous decision.
German Fiscal Reform Vote (March 18): The CDU/CSU, SPD, and Green Party will vote on a proposed fiscal package. The outcome could influence the Euro’s strength, depending on the market's perception of Germany’s fiscal outlook.
US Stock Market Sentiment: US equity futures are trading deep in negative territory early Monday, limiting EUR/USD’s potential upside.
Short-term price action and forecast
24-hour View: Following last week's sharp but brief rally to 1.0912, the pair closed higher at 1.0879. Current price movements indicate a range-trading phase between 1.0845 and 1.0910, suggesting continued consolidation.
1-3 Week Outlook: Analysts at UOB Group maintain a neutral stance, expecting EUR/USD to trade within a broader 1.0680 - 1.0950 range. While the recent rally has paused, there are no clear signs of a new directional trend.
Bias and Sentiment
The one-week market bias remains bearish, with 50% of forecasts predicting a decline and the rest expecting sideways movement. The absence of bullish sentiment indicates weak upward momentum, making it difficult for EUR/USD to break above 1.0900 without a strong catalyst.
The pair is likely to stay within a narrow range ahead of the US Retail Sales data and the Federal Reserve meeting. Support at 1.0850 holds near-term downside risks, with a break lower exposing 1.0800.
On the upside, 1.0900 remains the key resistance, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way toward 1.0940 - 1.1000.
Technical outlook: Consolidation continues
EUR/USD is exhibiting signs of indecisiveness, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering slightly above 50 and the price fluctuating around the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. These technical signals suggest a lack of strong directional bias in the near term.
Key support levels:
1.0850 - 1.0860: Confluence of the 50-period SMA and the 200-week SMA, marking immediate downside support.
1.0800: A static and psychological round number level.
1.0730: Supported by the 200-day SMA, a critical longer-term trend indicator.
Key resistance levels:
1.0900: A strong psychological barrier and static resistance level.
1.0940: Static resistance from previous price action.
1.1000: A major round number and historical resistance level.
Fundamental factors affecting EUR/USD
US Retail Sales Data (February Release): Expected to rise by 0.7%, rebounding from a 0.9% contraction in January. A weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on the US Dollar (USD), while a stronger report may provide support.
Federal Reserve Meeting (March 19): Market participants are reluctant to take large positions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision. The current consensus expects the Fed to maintain rates at 4.5%, which aligns with the previous decision.
German Fiscal Reform Vote (March 18): The CDU/CSU, SPD, and Green Party will vote on a proposed fiscal package. The outcome could influence the Euro’s strength, depending on the market's perception of Germany’s fiscal outlook.
US Stock Market Sentiment: US equity futures are trading deep in negative territory early Monday, limiting EUR/USD’s potential upside.
Short-term price action and forecast
24-hour View: Following last week's sharp but brief rally to 1.0912, the pair closed higher at 1.0879. Current price movements indicate a range-trading phase between 1.0845 and 1.0910, suggesting continued consolidation.
1-3 Week Outlook: Analysts at UOB Group maintain a neutral stance, expecting EUR/USD to trade within a broader 1.0680 - 1.0950 range. While the recent rally has paused, there are no clear signs of a new directional trend.
Bias and Sentiment
The one-week market bias remains bearish, with 50% of forecasts predicting a decline and the rest expecting sideways movement. The absence of bullish sentiment indicates weak upward momentum, making it difficult for EUR/USD to break above 1.0900 without a strong catalyst.
The pair is likely to stay within a narrow range ahead of the US Retail Sales data and the Federal Reserve meeting. Support at 1.0850 holds near-term downside risks, with a break lower exposing 1.0800.
On the upside, 1.0900 remains the key resistance, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way toward 1.0940 - 1.1000.
Trade forex, indices, stocks and metals with up to US$100.000 in company's funding.
Complete a challenge to access funding or go for instant deposit.
Trading involves substantial risk. Not financial advice
Complete a challenge to access funding or go for instant deposit.
Trading involves substantial risk. Not financial advice
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trade forex, indices, stocks and metals with up to US$100.000 in company's funding.
Complete a challenge to access funding or go for instant deposit.
Trading involves substantial risk. Not financial advice
Complete a challenge to access funding or go for instant deposit.
Trading involves substantial risk. Not financial advice
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.