EURUSD Ahead of the ECB Interest Rate Decision
The ECB Interest Rate Decision is the most important event for today. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the Main Refinancing Operations Rate to 2.65% and the Rate on Deposit Facility to 2.5%.
The market has already priced in the ECB rate cut over the past few days. Today's focus should be on the ECB Press Conference.
The euro strengthened across all pairs following the news that Germany will create a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund and overhaul borrowing rules to boost defense spending and revive growth. Europe also plans to increase defense spending, giving further support to the euro.
However, it is too early to expect the euro to continue rising steadily. Overall, nothing has changed significantly in Europe, and the trade war is still present.
EUR/USD already tested a strong resistance zone, and it is uncommon for this currency pair to rise 430 pips in just three days. The 1.0800 level is also a pivot zone for EUR/USD, which could push the price down to erase some of the recent gains.
It is risky, but it is possible that EUR/USD could begin a correction phase. The pair may correct down to the 1.0600 - 1.0650 area before resuming another bullish wave.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
The ECB Interest Rate Decision is the most important event for today. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the Main Refinancing Operations Rate to 2.65% and the Rate on Deposit Facility to 2.5%.
The market has already priced in the ECB rate cut over the past few days. Today's focus should be on the ECB Press Conference.
The euro strengthened across all pairs following the news that Germany will create a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund and overhaul borrowing rules to boost defense spending and revive growth. Europe also plans to increase defense spending, giving further support to the euro.
However, it is too early to expect the euro to continue rising steadily. Overall, nothing has changed significantly in Europe, and the trade war is still present.
EUR/USD already tested a strong resistance zone, and it is uncommon for this currency pair to rise 430 pips in just three days. The 1.0800 level is also a pivot zone for EUR/USD, which could push the price down to erase some of the recent gains.
It is risky, but it is possible that EUR/USD could begin a correction phase. The pair may correct down to the 1.0600 - 1.0650 area before resuming another bullish wave.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Note
📊The ECB decreased rates by 25 bps as widely expected
📊ECB announces their monetary policy decision for March 2025
🔴Monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive
🔴Rate cuts are making new borrowing less expensive for firms and households
🔴The disinflation process is well on track
🔴Inflation has continued to develop broadly as staff expected
🔴Headline inflation seen averaging 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027
🔴The upward revision in headline inflation for 2025 reflects stronger energy price dynamics
🔴Core inflation seen averaging 2.2% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027
🔴The economy faces continued challenges
🔴Growth projections downgraded to 0.9% for 2025, 1.2% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027
🔴That reflects lower exports and ongoing weakness in investment, in part from high trade policy uncertainty
🔴ECB to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance
🔴ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path
Trade active
📣EURUSD Ahead of the NFP Data
EUR/USD Analysis Yesterday, the ECB decreased rates by 25 bps (0.25%). Normally, a rate cut would cause EUR/USD to move down. However, the market didn't react at all, despite EUR/USD being in overextended conditions.
Trump's Tariffs and USD Impact Over the past two weeks, the main topic has been Trump and his tariffs. The USD was weak when the tariffs were announced and remains weak now that Trump has postponed them to April 2nd. It seems likely that the tariffs may never be imposed.
NFP Data Expectations The market is expecting an increase in NFP data to 160K from 143K, despite the significant uncertainty surrounding the USD.
EUR/USD Overextension EUR/USD is overextended and likely waiting for the NFP data to make a larger bearish correction. The recent volume for EUR/USD, growing nearly 500 pips in just four days, is unusual and suggests a correction is imminent.
Overall Market Outlook The overall USD picture remains bearish but is near strong areas today. The chances are that the NFP data can support the USD today. These are the first NFP data under Trump's presidency.
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✅MY Free Signals
t.me/TradingPuzzles
✅Personal Telegram
t.me/KlejdiCuni
✅YouTube
youtube.com/@TradingPuzzles
t.me/TradingPuzzles
✅Personal Telegram
t.me/KlejdiCuni
✅YouTube
youtube.com/@TradingPuzzles
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.