EURUSD Analysis (H4, Short Position):
1. Current Context:
As of the last update (presumably before February 2025), EURUSD was in a downtrend on higher timeframes (e.g., D1), which could influence the H4. Let’s assume the pair recently hit a local high and is showing signs of a downward reversal, aligning with your request for a short-position analysis.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: Suppose the nearest significant resistance on H4 is around 1.0500–1.0514 (a psychological level and a zone often mentioned in X posts and TradingView analyses). This could be confirmed by the 50-period EMA or a Supply Zone.
Support: The nearest support might be around 1.0400 or slightly lower at 1.0370, where price previously found demand (Demand Zone).
3. Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (EMA): If the 50 EMA crossed below the 200 EMA (bearish cross) or the price bounced off the 50 EMA downward, this strengthens the sell signal.
RSI (14): If RSI on H4 is in the overbought zone (above 70) and starts declining, it confirms weakening bullish momentum.
Volume: An increase in volume during a downward break of the resistance level could indicate bearish strength.
4. Patterns:
On H4, a reversal pattern might be forming, such as a "Double Top" near 1.0514 or a "Head and Shoulders" if the price has already started pulling back from resistance.
Alternatively, a break below an ascending channel with a retest of the upper channel line could serve as an entry point for a short.
5. Short Position Scenario:
Entry Point: If the price tests 1.0500–1.0514 and shows a bearish rejection (e.g., a pin bar or engulfing pattern), this is an ideal moment to enter a short.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop just above resistance, e.g., at 1.0530, to account for potential false breakouts.
Take-Profit: First target at 1.0400 (about 100–140 pips profit), second target at 1.0370 if bearish momentum persists.
Risk/Reward Ratio: With a 20–30 pip stop and a first target of 100 pips, you get at least a 1:3 ratio, which is acceptable for the strategy.
6. Fundamental Factors:
While this is a technical analysis, note that EURUSD is heavily influenced by U.S. data (e.g., NFP, Fed interest rates) and Eurozone events (ECB decisions). If strong dollar-supportive data is expected soon, it could reinforce the bearish scenario.
1. Current Context:
As of the last update (presumably before February 2025), EURUSD was in a downtrend on higher timeframes (e.g., D1), which could influence the H4. Let’s assume the pair recently hit a local high and is showing signs of a downward reversal, aligning with your request for a short-position analysis.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: Suppose the nearest significant resistance on H4 is around 1.0500–1.0514 (a psychological level and a zone often mentioned in X posts and TradingView analyses). This could be confirmed by the 50-period EMA or a Supply Zone.
Support: The nearest support might be around 1.0400 or slightly lower at 1.0370, where price previously found demand (Demand Zone).
3. Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (EMA): If the 50 EMA crossed below the 200 EMA (bearish cross) or the price bounced off the 50 EMA downward, this strengthens the sell signal.
RSI (14): If RSI on H4 is in the overbought zone (above 70) and starts declining, it confirms weakening bullish momentum.
Volume: An increase in volume during a downward break of the resistance level could indicate bearish strength.
4. Patterns:
On H4, a reversal pattern might be forming, such as a "Double Top" near 1.0514 or a "Head and Shoulders" if the price has already started pulling back from resistance.
Alternatively, a break below an ascending channel with a retest of the upper channel line could serve as an entry point for a short.
5. Short Position Scenario:
Entry Point: If the price tests 1.0500–1.0514 and shows a bearish rejection (e.g., a pin bar or engulfing pattern), this is an ideal moment to enter a short.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop just above resistance, e.g., at 1.0530, to account for potential false breakouts.
Take-Profit: First target at 1.0400 (about 100–140 pips profit), second target at 1.0370 if bearish momentum persists.
Risk/Reward Ratio: With a 20–30 pip stop and a first target of 100 pips, you get at least a 1:3 ratio, which is acceptable for the strategy.
6. Fundamental Factors:
While this is a technical analysis, note that EURUSD is heavily influenced by U.S. data (e.g., NFP, Fed interest rates) and Eurozone events (ECB decisions). If strong dollar-supportive data is expected soon, it could reinforce the bearish scenario.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.