Euro / U.S. DollarShort
EWA. EURUSD - An Ending Diagonal (Wedge)
Updated
And so, after a little break in falling down, in the middle of august '15, EURO continues his journey to the south. Perhaps, now there is forming an ending diagonal in the wave 5 (or c). Why do I think so? As we can see, there are a lot of correction waves (ABC), both up and down. Therefore, there are two possible scenarios:
Why do I think it's the second scenario, even the ending diagonals are not so common? In the wave II, there were formed a beautiful triangle in its wave {B}. As we remember, accordind to the Elliot Wave rules, a triangle could be only a wave 4 or B. Obviously, it cannot be a wave 4, therefore it's a B-wave. The question is, it's a B-wave in the I-st wave of upside diagonal or it is in the II-nd wave of the downside diagonal?
My trading plan:
March has started with a little correction, and it's a good oportunity to sell. So, I open a short possition, even the correction can go further, with a stop-loss order at the local maximum - 1,137. Once the order is filled, it means I will trade the second scenario. I want to trade wave 3 only (because to trade wave 5 in an ending diagonal is too dangerous), so the target zone is, at least, 1,05, but probably it will be 1,04 or even more. So, the risk/reward ratio is acceptable.
- The correction up will continue in the wave C, and the whole model will be a flat (marked with gray color). In this case, wave C can be an ending diagonal as well.
- There will be formed an endind diagonal, and the current "ABC's" are its wave I and II. After it's finished, the currency will start a major correction, but it'll be not earlier than next year.
Why do I think it's the second scenario, even the ending diagonals are not so common? In the wave II, there were formed a beautiful triangle in its wave {B}. As we remember, accordind to the Elliot Wave rules, a triangle could be only a wave 4 or B. Obviously, it cannot be a wave 4, therefore it's a B-wave. The question is, it's a B-wave in the I-st wave of upside diagonal or it is in the II-nd wave of the downside diagonal?
My trading plan:
March has started with a little correction, and it's a good oportunity to sell. So, I open a short possition, even the correction can go further, with a stop-loss order at the local maximum - 1,137. Once the order is filled, it means I will trade the second scenario. I want to trade wave 3 only (because to trade wave 5 in an ending diagonal is too dangerous), so the target zone is, at least, 1,05, but probably it will be 1,04 or even more. So, the risk/reward ratio is acceptable.
Trade active
Note
Today was a funny day, and it's a perfect demonstration why fundamental analysis is quite hard to use. Fortunatelly, my trade is still active. So I'm waiting for the end of correction and moving to south.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.