We are yet to find an avenue for Bearish confirmation since my last publication on this pair as the price continues to find a higher high (see link below for reference purposes). Continuous rejection of the $1.22500 level since mid-May 2021 is a clue pointing at the possibility of a bearish momentum building up at this juncture in the market.
The prospect of positive clues on Federal Reserve monetary policy and weakness in the euro appears to be restoring some confidence back for the Greenback in the coming week(s) as I am looking forward to a Breakdown/Retest of Neckline which is also a Key level @ $1.21200 for confirmation.
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline
Observation: i. The line drawn under pivot lows is a visual representation of the prevailing direction and speed of price action in the last couple of months.
ii. We have witnessed a sharp rise in the value of the Euro since the beginning of April 2021 and the multiple rejections at the $1.22500 area reveal a decline in Bullish momentum as Sellers appear to be on the verge of dictating the direction of price action in the nearest future.
iii. Breakdown of Trendline on the 3rd of June followed by a sharp rejection of same during last week trading session anticipates a change in direction.
iv. In this regard, I shall be looking forward to a Breakdown/Retest of Neckline (Key level I) @ $1.21200 for confirmations in the coming week.
v. Further plunge below Key level II @ $1.19500 might welcome addition to the existing position... Trade consciously! :)
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips.
Risk/Reward: 1:6
Potential Duration: 5 to 10days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.