EURUSD fundamental swing trade short
Updated
What points to USD strength fundamentally:
- Monetary policy: FED rate median is at 2.15% end of 2018 vs ECB expected to hike only 2019 Q4 -> carry on USD side
- CB balance sheet: FED BS decreasing since 2017 May, ECB still rising, tapering expected in '18 Sept
- Inflation: US Core inflation 2.1% and forecasted to 2.4% vs Eurozone 1.1% and moderate upward forecast
Cons:
- Citi WERM valuation: EUR undervalued by 20% (historically not outstanding)
- CitiFX Global Flows: Real Money got net EUR buyer in June
Risk-events ahead:
- US inflation - June 12
- FED rate decision (hike expected) - June 13
- ECB monetary policy meeting - June 14
- Monetary policy: FED rate median is at 2.15% end of 2018 vs ECB expected to hike only 2019 Q4 -> carry on USD side
- CB balance sheet: FED BS decreasing since 2017 May, ECB still rising, tapering expected in '18 Sept
- Inflation: US Core inflation 2.1% and forecasted to 2.4% vs Eurozone 1.1% and moderate upward forecast
Cons:
- Citi WERM valuation: EUR undervalued by 20% (historically not outstanding)
- CitiFX Global Flows: Real Money got net EUR buyer in June
Risk-events ahead:
- US inflation - June 12
- FED rate decision (hike expected) - June 13
- ECB monetary policy meeting - June 14
Trade active
Openened position:- US CPI figures above expectation
- FOMC might indicate 4 hikes instead of 3
- 64% of retail traders on the long side (myfxbook)
Trade closed manually
Closed @ 61.8 Fib retracement @ 1.1652 (0.68%)- Entry was sh*tty, too early
- Closing OK, could apply trailing the slide
- Position size, ahead of risk events was smaller, also OK
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