Ellison EUR/USD Morning analysis 14/06
Updated
With the news today, I'm expecting EUR/USD to be indecisive but continue its bullishness until the news. Right now we are still holding pullback structure on the higher timeframe and even though price was choppy yesterday we still saw buyers printing intraday highs.
I would be looking for buys at the same price sensitivity areas at a pullback of 1.076 or above 1.079. But then I would anticipate resistance at the liquidity zone above towards the end of the day as it may just be price set ups for the FOMC news later in the day.
Fundamental analysis
SHORT VERSION:
- Markets have been expecting a skip/pause on rate hikes for June meeting
- Unchanged rates will not hold much weight as it has already been priced into market
- Main focus of this FOMC is if there is a surprise rate hike or a strong sentiment in Powell's speech afterwards.
LONGER VERSION:
I wrote yesterday about the weight US rate decisions have been having on the markets ever since the pandemic.
What we have been seeing over the last 3-6 months is a lot of the rate hike cycles being priced into the market and also a lot of speculation about when rate hike cuts will come back into the scene.
The main expectation for today is for the FED to pause or skip the month of June, leaving interest rates unchanged. This has already been priced in and won't lead to a move if it happens. This means we may see more of a buy the rumour and sell the news type play on Dollar and see a reaction to a surprise rate hike or rate cut (with a cut being highly unlikely).
More importantly, I'm going to listen to the sentiment of Powell's statement he releases afterwards.
I would be looking for buys at the same price sensitivity areas at a pullback of 1.076 or above 1.079. But then I would anticipate resistance at the liquidity zone above towards the end of the day as it may just be price set ups for the FOMC news later in the day.
Fundamental analysis
SHORT VERSION:
- Markets have been expecting a skip/pause on rate hikes for June meeting
- Unchanged rates will not hold much weight as it has already been priced into market
- Main focus of this FOMC is if there is a surprise rate hike or a strong sentiment in Powell's speech afterwards.
LONGER VERSION:
I wrote yesterday about the weight US rate decisions have been having on the markets ever since the pandemic.
What we have been seeing over the last 3-6 months is a lot of the rate hike cycles being priced into the market and also a lot of speculation about when rate hike cuts will come back into the scene.
The main expectation for today is for the FED to pause or skip the month of June, leaving interest rates unchanged. This has already been priced in and won't lead to a move if it happens. This means we may see more of a buy the rumour and sell the news type play on Dollar and see a reaction to a surprise rate hike or rate cut (with a cut being highly unlikely).
More importantly, I'm going to listen to the sentiment of Powell's statement he releases afterwards.
Note
Example entry on the 1 minute timeframe. Taken when trend is broken on the pullback after the 1.079 area has been reached.
Note
Example entry on the 30 minute timeframe for those who get heart palpitations from watching the 1m chart. Taken on the bullish close from the 1.079 area called out in the original post.
Note
Please take note these are not my entries, just simple ideas of how the trade could have been taken.Note
Note
As we approach our target that we set for the day, start to think about how you feel in this moment. Were you able to hold on to your trade or did you get anxious/excited/nervous and close it early when we started to consolidate?
These feelings are natural but are damaging for Traders. It is a journey for sure to learn to backseat these emotions and trade logically and robotically.
If you feel like closing the trade based on gut feeling, look instead for structure breaks and large engulfing candles.
I for one feel nothing towards my profitable trade today, as it is just one day in my many year journey.
Note
The TP from this mornings idea has been hitNote
For transparency, this is the exact trade I took today
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.