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Euro / U.S. Dollar

EURUSD 25 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US GDP / Jobless

By Amr-Sadek
This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

  1. Market Sentiment
  2. 4H Chart Analysis
  3. 15m Chart Analysis


Market Sentiment

  • Euro's recent strength: The Euro has gained some ground against the USD lately, fueled by weaker US data and supporting the Pullback Phase after the YTD lows.
  • US data as a game changer: The upcoming US GDP and Jobless Claims reports are the main event. Strong numbers could significantly strengthen the USD, reversing the Euro's recent gains.
  • Cautious market: Investors are holding back until the data is released, creating a wait-and-see sentiment that could limit the Euro's upside potential specially with US PCE Inflation Report tomorrow.


4H Chart Analysis

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Itjo1AM7/

1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish
  • INT / Swing Pullback Phase


2.

  • Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.


3.

  • After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
  • With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
  • Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.


4.

  • As price reached the 4H Supply with Bullish OF, price showed a bearish reaction as expected to facilitate a Pullback to recent Demand.
  • Price tapped into the 4H Demand and currently in the momentum to create a new high.
  • As indicated previously, the Liquidity on the left above the 4H Supply and possibly the Swing EQ are the targets.


15m Chart Analysis

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cakcHT0x/

1.

  • Swing Bullish
  • Internal Bullish
  • Long: Phase A
  • Short: Phase C (Require Bearish iBOS)


2.

  • Price mitigation to the 4H Demand.


3.

  • Price turned bullish after mitigating the 4H Demand turning INT structure to Bullish.
  • With INT structure is Bullish, expectations are set that we are going to target the Weak Swing High.
  • But be mindful that we are still within the 4H Supply Zone that is partially mitigated yesterday so Phase A2 after the BOS will be tough. But Phase C will be applicable if we have a Bearish iBOS.
Chart PatternsEUREURUSDintradayliquidityLTFMultiple Time Frame AnalysissmartmoneyconceptSMCstructureSupply and DemandUSD
Amr-Sadek

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