Long

EURUSD at 61.8% retracement on bullish reversal

Updated

Eur/USD has made 61.8% retracement from 1.108 tops and 1.0985 was the early entry point. This point has also matched AB=CD pattern 1.1085,1.1015, 1.10680,1.0985 on H4 chart. This is a safe entry point for a small position while larger entry can be made at around 1.096 where 76.4% retracement support is awaiting. A safe SL should be put just below the previous low of 1.092

The final target is 1.12, where 1.1150, 1.1080 and 1.1025 could be an intermediate partial profit taking. Once the price breaks 1.11 resistance a SL can be moved to 1.1050 to protect profits.

Note

EUR/USD has turned 1.1015 support into TurnCoat resistance and is pressuring down the price ahead of ECB meeting.

Such a messy movement in the price action is usually a trick used to get smaller traders trapped or give up their positions. I do not see a point or a need to give up long term buying as I see a bullish 3Drives pattern on W1 chart which is a Big YES to buy.

The pattern suggests that the lowest point we can buy is 1.0881 with a SL 1.087.

For short term traders - it is best to work on 30 or 15 min chart and scalp the new formed channel - 1.0985-1.103 to maximize their profits.

Note

The price has well behaved by staying within indicated channel 1.0985-1.103 and scalping was the best way to make profits since yesterday.

Since price has not managed to overcome 1.11 resistance before the ECB rate decision - it is clear that there is about 70-80% chance of price going down and that drop would last for the next 48 hours. So buying is most likely to return on Monday. Until then - we should experience a maximum drop to 1.0881 and long term buyers should consider that.

Either way - Weekly bullish patter is still valid and previously mentioned targets are still valid after this last bearish move.

If you have not bought yet - I would advise looking for a buy position on Monday when clarity comes into charts.

Note

EURUSD is moving slightly faster than anticipated and bought at both levels - 1.096 as H4 pattern suggests and 1.093 (as it failed to go below the 1.09255 support) as W1 pattern suggests. SL will be moved to 1.105 once we cross 1.11 resistance.

All 3 positions maintain the earlier posted TP levels.

Note

First TP of 1.103 has been reached, other, lower positions moved SL to BE

Note

A long anticipated 1.11 resistance has been finally broken, both remaining positions SL has been moved to 1.1050 to preserve profits, while the 3rd has hit TP at 1.1080.

1.113 is D1 MA50 and some rejection may occur here and you are free to take profits at 1.113 rather than pursuing 1.1150

Eur/USD may rise to 1.126 but i will not be hunting for that but rather be waiting for clarity on the charts.

Trade closed manually

The pair did not manage to overcome 1.11 resistance and is on the way down. I will book remaining profits now without waiting for SL to hit is 10 pip lower as it is too obvious that this pair is lacking strength for upmove.

Note

The price has dropped lower and closing early has saved me a total of 20 pips on 2 positions. Price has gone even lower than my SL my 15 pips and that means that we may go down again.

I'm am reluctant to sell at these low levels even when the price can go down to 1.085

I would rather buy on every drop and I'll be ready to sell once the price reaches 1.12-1.128 zone where a bearish pattern should emerge on D1 chart.

This concludes this trading idea and no point in updating it further as new idea is needed.

Erland

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