EURUSD: Toward a normalisation of the pair
Buy Rumor sell news says to good adage of trading. Of course the hypothesis is the the rumor should be a correc one.
Know market bought a rumor that doesn't look like an accurate one. Remember that the rumor was that FED would increase this year its interest rate because of the inflation target that FED has supposed to reach.
But FED will not increase its interest rate before 1Q15 if not 2Q15. Therefore because of the rumor, the pair has been oversold.
On the other hand, ECB PResident Draghi underlined that its institution is ready to lauch a European QE if needed, but if you look at the market and the situation of the indexes, ( DJI SP500 CAC40, DAX FT etc) there is yet no ground to launch such a missile in the market.
That is why EUR has been indecently oversold and when you look at RSI the indicator stayed too long at the oversold level.
Therefore we can anticipate a move on the upside until the pair find its equilibrium in the market which may be at around 1.355.
Having said that on the long term, when ECB launches its European Qe and when FED will increase its interest rate, probably at the same time or more or less in a harmonic move, EUR will not stay above 1.30 for sure...
Know market bought a rumor that doesn't look like an accurate one. Remember that the rumor was that FED would increase this year its interest rate because of the inflation target that FED has supposed to reach.
But FED will not increase its interest rate before 1Q15 if not 2Q15. Therefore because of the rumor, the pair has been oversold.
On the other hand, ECB PResident Draghi underlined that its institution is ready to lauch a European QE if needed, but if you look at the market and the situation of the indexes, ( DJI SP500 CAC40, DAX FT etc) there is yet no ground to launch such a missile in the market.
That is why EUR has been indecently oversold and when you look at RSI the indicator stayed too long at the oversold level.
Therefore we can anticipate a move on the upside until the pair find its equilibrium in the market which may be at around 1.355.
Having said that on the long term, when ECB launches its European Qe and when FED will increase its interest rate, probably at the same time or more or less in a harmonic move, EUR will not stay above 1.30 for sure...
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