V1:T2_EURUSD_Daily_2hr_Institutional whiplash_THE best entry?...
Updated
Daily chart shows a lower low formed Wednesday with direct rejection of the low Thursday and Friday. Since we closed the week far from that low this is still a certified uptrend that is consolidating at major overhead support (1.25000.)
Appears to me the market needed to clear out all longs before moving higher. To do this, we needed to move intraweek below that obvious higher low (thin pink line) and even more substantially, below the second low (thick pink line.) Check out the 2 hour chart to see the slow bleed/grind lower to stop out all longs before ripping out of the zone. That's how I know I'm on the right side of this market. The slow bleed to retail stop out levels followed by huge move out of the zone, with trend, is textbook institutional movement. I am always looking for that strategic stop-out entry before the trend continues.
Moving forward I will wait and see. 3/2/18 Forex Factory reports 41% traders LONG, and 59% traders short. Meaning, this market has successfully cleared the table of with trend long traders. The harshest pain for retails will be felt if the market springs higher based on these stats. I've defined a very strong range to tell me what EURUSD is thinking. A move above the green line seems most likely. Especially considering the daily slow stochastic and retail ebb and flow theory stated above.
There is always the chance I'm wrong and the market may actually be due lower defined by the red line.
Black fib levels hold serious conviction based on the weekly cart (see comment)
Dark blue is the daily recent swing low to the new high. These levels are important on a day to day basis.
Orange levels are the most recent pullback and should be used only to identify overlapping areas of support/resistance.
Long EURUSD means short DXY and in turn Long XXX/USD Short USD/XXX paired currencies. If one of the two directional conditions are met but other charts are trading favorably I may consider shorting USDJPY or USDCAD, or long NZDUSD, AUDUSD.
Cheers!
If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated!
Disclaimer: Different data shown. |V1-T1 = Volume 1-Trade 1| Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
Appears to me the market needed to clear out all longs before moving higher. To do this, we needed to move intraweek below that obvious higher low (thin pink line) and even more substantially, below the second low (thick pink line.) Check out the 2 hour chart to see the slow bleed/grind lower to stop out all longs before ripping out of the zone. That's how I know I'm on the right side of this market. The slow bleed to retail stop out levels followed by huge move out of the zone, with trend, is textbook institutional movement. I am always looking for that strategic stop-out entry before the trend continues.
Moving forward I will wait and see. 3/2/18 Forex Factory reports 41% traders LONG, and 59% traders short. Meaning, this market has successfully cleared the table of with trend long traders. The harshest pain for retails will be felt if the market springs higher based on these stats. I've defined a very strong range to tell me what EURUSD is thinking. A move above the green line seems most likely. Especially considering the daily slow stochastic and retail ebb and flow theory stated above.
There is always the chance I'm wrong and the market may actually be due lower defined by the red line.
Black fib levels hold serious conviction based on the weekly cart (see comment)
Dark blue is the daily recent swing low to the new high. These levels are important on a day to day basis.
Orange levels are the most recent pullback and should be used only to identify overlapping areas of support/resistance.
Long EURUSD means short DXY and in turn Long XXX/USD Short USD/XXX paired currencies. If one of the two directional conditions are met but other charts are trading favorably I may consider shorting USDJPY or USDCAD, or long NZDUSD, AUDUSD.
Cheers!
If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated!
Disclaimer: Different data shown. |V1-T1 = Volume 1-Trade 1| Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
Note
Note
End of Monday marks a neutral bar. Price did push higher off the lows, but ultimately closed little changed. Rejection of up above noted also. Will need more confirmation for now. I did have long order pending 1.22500 which did not get filled, but almost! would have been a great fill. Note
Our level to indicate upward moving momentum in EURUSD and downward on DXY has been triggered early this morning. Proceed to trade long XXX/USD pairs. Short USD/XXX pairs.
Note
Note
Caution is show on EURUSD as the Daily is showing signs of indecision, but our level is still holding. Long trades only.
Note
Note
Notice how the first high on that 30 minute chart on the right, was broken right before price made the huge move down to fulfil the exhaustion bar on the daily. The first high is exactly 1.24457. The second-directly before making the move down, 1.24462. Incredible price action by the algos. That would have been the perfect entry short. #ThinkliketheblackboxNote
The level could not sustain buying. Price did end up breaking below the support level we identified, but not before chewing up as many traders as possible. I was able to catch a T1 long, but stopped out of the other half of the position to break even. I'm guilty of breaking some of my rules here. I almost always stop trading after making decent gains. This time I did not and it hurt me. Despite my cautionary comment, I failed to trail the other half of this trade, or even set a stop to pay for fees. I live to trade another day just a little bit smarter.
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