Long

Buying Eur/USD again

Updated

EUR/USD has been flirting with 1.099 support for 2 days and I have just bought a position at 1.09915 with TP 1.12. I see two bullish candles on W1 chart and I do not see any reason not to buy. SL is below 1.092 and target should be reached fairly soon as we have been consolidating above 1.092 for 3 weeks already and it was not broken.

The other reason for buying is an RSI divergence on H1 chart and price is coming from an oversold levels there providing a reason for a fast advance up. Simple trade 1 position, 1 TP. No other choices, IFs or Buts.

Note

For those on larger margin accounts - SL should be 1.084 as weekly chart is suggesting that buying down to 1.088 is valid with a minimum target 1.12 on W1 and a potential of rising to 1.126-1.128

It is recommended to move SL to 1.1050 once we get above 1.11 to protect your profits as we may have a number of drops down during the period of consolidation which allows us buying every time it drops down on H1 and H4 charts. This covers our negative swaps and allows capitalizing on those moves.

A note to sellers: W1 and monthly charts are still bearish but long term selling will come only after a good retracement is in place. Selling is permitted only while scalping with tight SL.

Note

1.099 - 1.11 zone should not be broken until tomorrow evening and late buyers may still have a chance to buy. For scalpers - today and half of the day tomorrow will be profitable days as we have a clear channel to work with.

Note

Price is standing well 80 pips above my entry and looks promising to provide with the remaining 130 pips.

On D1 chart we can see a very good support at 1.099 and there is a high chance it will hold. MA50 on D1 is at 1.111-1.112 , Bollinger bands top line is just above it and if that breaks by the end of the week - D1 channel down (which started at 1.1412) will be broken and price will start making higher highs and higher lows on D1 chart as W1 pattern is suggesting on the chart.

That tells me that it is safer to buy on every retracement rather that try and sell highs as what we are looking at is a beginning of a trend change which could be confirmed very soon.

Note

The pair is being heavily sold and has reached 1.092 support threatening to drop to 1.088 weekly support. On a D1 chart it is possible to drop to 1.08.

Today's drop was very negative and the expected bounce back to 1.10 during Asian session did not occur making recovery harder. The only thing that currently is helping is a heavily oversold H1 and H4 chart where H1 is already showing some sign of RSI divergence.

Note

RSi divergence on H1 has finally proved to give some support during Asian and European session and price was able to recover from 1.905. First confirmation of a bullish reversal can be assumed once we get above 1.10. If we are rejected at 1.099 - we are going for 1.088 and all early buyers with low margins will be shaken off.

I am still standing by W1 chart bullish pattern idea and buying no is the safest alternative for me.

Selling now is like throwing peanuts in front of a steam roller in a hope to stop it.

Note

edit: recover from 1.0905

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1.0884 has been touched and this confirms the bottom point for weekly bullish pattern. This is my last buying point and we now wait for the price to start climbing up towards 1.10 first to see if further upside is confirmed

Note

As it was happening for the last 18 months - a strong bullish move up after an extended selling on W1 chart. We have had an aggressive H4 candle yesterday and two strong H4 candles are being formed today. It is expected to stall the move up at around 1.097-1.098 for a drop down to 1.094 before resuming the uptrend to 1.099.

This drop would be a good entry point for late buyers. I wish well to everyone who bought at 1.088 with me as this opportunity was given twice.

1.10 is a decisive point and caution is advised as in the current situation it is dangerous for both - buyers and sellers. For buyers - we may drop to an old support zone 1.034-1.055, for sellers - it may take a while to go down from current levels.

Note

Price has broken up on H4 and H5 channel and finally broke 1.096 resistance. We have reached 1.099 and I am taking partial profits here for my buys from 1.088, 1.0925 and 1.0965.

We now have to see if 1.101 gives up and prices comes above 1.103 to remove some bearish bias from the charts. Only 1.111 will confirm that all our BUY positions are safe.

We are still within the 1.088-1.1025 channel and until price breaks out of it - it is nothing else but consolidation.

My all SL is just below 1.0879 as breaking 1.088 will push us towards 1.086 which is very important level.

If 1.086 breaks (not a fake break) - the price will accelerate to the downside very aggressively and will fill the Macron gap towards 1.06

I see no point in updating this further until we break out from 1.088-1.1025 channel. Bullish above, bearish below.

Note

EUR/USD reacted negatively to poor US data (which was unexpected to nee and against my plan) thus I have closed my long just at 1.097. We may be heading down and next week we may see 1.088 again. if it holds - will buy it there again or will wait for a break lower.

Trade closed manually

I will look for a new idea since I have closed everything. Decent amount of pips have been made since the beginning of this idea and I believe there is nothing wrong in being wrong when money are made. I am heading away for a weekend with cash off the table.

Erland

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