Another tiring week if honest, just want to get to April 2nd and whilst it may not be a straightforward interpretation of what is to come at least it will provide some firmer ground on which to think about the world. Judging the price action this week is tricky given rebalancing effects, but stand back I do think things hold in rather well all told and would have thought the dollar would be trading stronger overall, especially since the noise and perceived hawkishness on tariffs has generally gone up this week.
Therefore happy to hold some core dollar shorts mostly in options coupled with small cash given I feel the damage is being done to the US from a credibility standpoint and eventually from an economic perspective (hard data might still take a while to catch down to the soft data). I think the euro holds in remarkably well given auto tariffs and EU bashing has become more vociferous, if we end up here or higher by late next week I think the flows which began post German fiscal changes will accelerate as interpretation will be bigger things at play. Sticking with the yen which has been uncomfortable this week, but the move higher in yields may have more to do with month end than anything else and we have seen some cleansing of the systematic yen short too, Tokyo CPI and BOJ minutes overnight still point in a hawkish direction also, the only caveat is technically we are doing some damage on the charts. Also sticking with eurgbp, amazed at the ability of the pound to outpace most other currencies this week, maybe some fiscal year end type flows and the data has overall been ok alongside the perception the UK will be amongst the most leniently treated countries in terms of tariffs, I still believe the financial challenges and fiscal restraint just as others move in the opposite direction will ultimately play out in a weaker currency. Finally cleansed the usdzar longs, looked again like about to explode above 18.30 yesterday but was one fail too many for me.
The euro holds in ok here despite the market feeling that the EU will be one of the more harshly treated in the tariff circus next week, personally I think encouraging for the thesis of a few weeks back that there is an underlying change in the medium term flow picture. Clearly can't declare we are out of the woods until we get through next week so holding core longs still mostly via options so not to get too caught up in the inevitable mess. The French and Spanish inflation prints this morning both a bit on the soft side but data and ECB outlooks not really the driving force right now. Holding where we have to above the 200 day (1.0725) so far, a little disappointing the foray onto the 1.08 handle didn't hold for now but above 1.0850/60 shorter term (highs on the week) would be interesting for another attack on the high of the move in the 1.0950 are with an ultimate target of 1.12 if we get going.
Therefore happy to hold some core dollar shorts mostly in options coupled with small cash given I feel the damage is being done to the US from a credibility standpoint and eventually from an economic perspective (hard data might still take a while to catch down to the soft data). I think the euro holds in remarkably well given auto tariffs and EU bashing has become more vociferous, if we end up here or higher by late next week I think the flows which began post German fiscal changes will accelerate as interpretation will be bigger things at play. Sticking with the yen which has been uncomfortable this week, but the move higher in yields may have more to do with month end than anything else and we have seen some cleansing of the systematic yen short too, Tokyo CPI and BOJ minutes overnight still point in a hawkish direction also, the only caveat is technically we are doing some damage on the charts. Also sticking with eurgbp, amazed at the ability of the pound to outpace most other currencies this week, maybe some fiscal year end type flows and the data has overall been ok alongside the perception the UK will be amongst the most leniently treated countries in terms of tariffs, I still believe the financial challenges and fiscal restraint just as others move in the opposite direction will ultimately play out in a weaker currency. Finally cleansed the usdzar longs, looked again like about to explode above 18.30 yesterday but was one fail too many for me.
The euro holds in ok here despite the market feeling that the EU will be one of the more harshly treated in the tariff circus next week, personally I think encouraging for the thesis of a few weeks back that there is an underlying change in the medium term flow picture. Clearly can't declare we are out of the woods until we get through next week so holding core longs still mostly via options so not to get too caught up in the inevitable mess. The French and Spanish inflation prints this morning both a bit on the soft side but data and ECB outlooks not really the driving force right now. Holding where we have to above the 200 day (1.0725) so far, a little disappointing the foray onto the 1.08 handle didn't hold for now but above 1.0850/60 shorter term (highs on the week) would be interesting for another attack on the high of the move in the 1.0950 are with an ultimate target of 1.12 if we get going.
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thedailyfx.com/performance/
3. Best Forex EA:
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4. Free Forex VPS:
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
1. AccuTrade System:
tradingview.com/v/yDFPnb1J/
2. Signal Performance:
thedailyfx.com/performance/
3. Best Forex EA:
thedailyfx.com/beetle-ea/
4. Free Forex VPS:
myfxvps.com/get-it-free/
tradingview.com/v/yDFPnb1J/
2. Signal Performance:
thedailyfx.com/performance/
3. Best Forex EA:
thedailyfx.com/beetle-ea/
4. Free Forex VPS:
myfxvps.com/get-it-free/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.