This is an interesting setup for a short on the EURUSD. I've made my probability estimates based on standard indicators: 1. EMA50 2. Aroon 19 (a customised version). 3. BuySellSignal 4. ATR stop-loss by Vervoort. 5. RSI. 6. Fibonacci
Key features - all considered together: 1. Established down trend is re-established by price falling below EMA50 on 4h. 2. Aroon down (the bears) has shot to 100 and made an ideal cross at 50. 3. Weak bullish rebellion has failed (Aroon up falls off not getting near to 50, and bears setting back in). 4. Fibonacci support fails at 61.8
Note
Shorted with stop-loss just above 61.8 Fib, at ATR stop-loss line.
Note
Trend re-established after a minor bull rebellion.
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