Over the course of 2023 and 2024, EURUSD has been consolidating within a range between the support zone at 1.06 and resistance at 1.11.
End of 2024: The support at 1.06 was broken, leading to the creation of a new bottom at 1.0176 in January 2025.
After reaching this low, we saw a strong bullish weekly candle with a +2.19% move, signaling potential for a rebound.
Daily (1D) Chart:
From August to September 2024, the price formed a double top pattern, followed by a bearish trend that lasted until January 2025.
Long-Term Outlook: In the long-term, I remain bearish on EURUSD. However, a potential correction in the short term is expected as the price may test the broken support level around 1.06 and the newly formed bottom in 2025.
4-Hour (4H) Chart:
At the beginning of 2025, we observed a bullish reversal, and now the price is forming a bullish trend on the smaller time frame, confirmed by moving averages and the formation of higher highs and higher lows.
A key observation is that the trend line has been broken, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.
Strategy: I'm currently waiting for a bearish reversal pattern to potentially enter a short position.
🔤 Summary:
In the long term, I remain bearish on EURUSD but expect a potential correction before the price continues lower.
In the short term, I’m looking for a bearish reversal pattern on the smaller time frame (4H) to enter a short position.
The trend line break on the 4H chart is significant and may indicate a shift in trend, so I'll be cautious and monitor for confirmation before taking action.
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