I believe we are facing a beginning of short / fall.
I explain.
As you can see from the image, we have been on a low channel since 2008. Even before!
The price today hit exactly the downtrend line and retreated, failing to break through.
Based on the analysis of the weekly chart, I carried out the Fibonacci retraction and expansion process since March 2020, to find out the corrections and arrange the entire price path.
In an incredibly jaw-dropping way (in fact, fibonacci is incredible and magical), wave 5 exactly coincided with the top of the channel at exactly 2,272% FIbo (maximize the image to see better).
Apparently, wave 5 has been completed and a long process of correcting this entire cycle will begin.
If we take the general rule, it will reset a Zig-Zag correction in ABC format. Anyway, we can also project that the price will reach the golden level of Fibonacci expansion, at the rate of 0.618%. This results in an average price of 1.10406.
Briefly:
1. The bearish channel is being respected and the price is unable to break.
2. All five Elliot propulsion waves plotted together with Fibonacci retraction and expansion were respected on the weekly chart.
3. Everything indicates a correction of this cycle, which started in March of that year.
4. The price is a long way from the VWAP as shown by the indicator, it has long been indicating a sale and now, finally, the average is starting to turn downwards
It is a good time to go in shorts WITH SMALL LOTS, at least until the presented study is confirmed.
Remember: This is not financial advice and you are solely responsible for your gains and losses.
Success!