From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair shows mixed signals across different timeframes, creating an interesting setup for traders. On the 4-hour chart, the broader trend remains bearish, with clear break-of-structure (BOS) events marking lower lows, reinforcing downside momentum. However, the 15-minute chart shows a sign of recovery as the price forms higher lows, though it's still confined within a range.
Indicators reflect this indecision. MACD is flat across all timeframes, suggesting a lack of momentum, while ADX values between 17 and 22 confirm weak trend strength with no clear directional bias. ATR remains low, signalling reduced volatility. Volume analysis shows spikes at key support and resistance levels, but tapering volume during consolidations hints at market hesitation.
From a macro perspective, while sentiment may be moderately volatile outside of Trump's tariff talks, the Eurozone continues to experience sticky inflation figures, as seen in Monday's CPI print. The JOLTS and ADP reports would likely be distorted against the current backdrop of uncertainty that would develop from tariffs the U.S. imposes on others.
Trade Idea.
Bull Case (scalping)
Entry Trigger: 1.0340 breakout above weak high
Stop Loss: 1.0330
Target: 1.0355 (which is the scalping resistance)
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2
Bull Case (Swing)
Entry Trigger: Enter long near 1.0300
Stop Loss: 1.0280
Target: 1.0370 (4H High)
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3
Bearish Case (scalping)
Entry Trigger: 1.0335 (Enter short)
Stop Loss: 1.0355
Target: 1.0310
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2
Bearish Case (Swing)
Entry Trigger: 1.0300
Stop Loss: 1.0315
Target: 1.0260
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3
In conclusion, the Eurozone's CPI print will be a key factor driving short-term momentum. A higher CPI print would significantly impact the market. Alternatively, weaker job figures could continue the EUR's short-term momentum. Conversely, stronger JOLTS and ADP figures keep the Fed on the current rate trajectory, spurring a price reversal in the EUR's momentum.
Due to the volatility, scalping might not pose the most favourable strategy this week.
Indicators reflect this indecision. MACD is flat across all timeframes, suggesting a lack of momentum, while ADX values between 17 and 22 confirm weak trend strength with no clear directional bias. ATR remains low, signalling reduced volatility. Volume analysis shows spikes at key support and resistance levels, but tapering volume during consolidations hints at market hesitation.
From a macro perspective, while sentiment may be moderately volatile outside of Trump's tariff talks, the Eurozone continues to experience sticky inflation figures, as seen in Monday's CPI print. The JOLTS and ADP reports would likely be distorted against the current backdrop of uncertainty that would develop from tariffs the U.S. imposes on others.
Trade Idea.
Bull Case (scalping)
Entry Trigger: 1.0340 breakout above weak high
Stop Loss: 1.0330
Target: 1.0355 (which is the scalping resistance)
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2
Bull Case (Swing)
Entry Trigger: Enter long near 1.0300
Stop Loss: 1.0280
Target: 1.0370 (4H High)
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3
Bearish Case (scalping)
Entry Trigger: 1.0335 (Enter short)
Stop Loss: 1.0355
Target: 1.0310
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2
Bearish Case (Swing)
Entry Trigger: 1.0300
Stop Loss: 1.0315
Target: 1.0260
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3
In conclusion, the Eurozone's CPI print will be a key factor driving short-term momentum. A higher CPI print would significantly impact the market. Alternatively, weaker job figures could continue the EUR's short-term momentum. Conversely, stronger JOLTS and ADP figures keep the Fed on the current rate trajectory, spurring a price reversal in the EUR's momentum.
Due to the volatility, scalping might not pose the most favourable strategy this week.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.