Long

Updated

EURUSD mid-term analysis (uptrend assumption)

looks like EURUSD has formed A and B waves of ABC flat pattern.
rate broke out of B wave structure.

if current assumption is true, wave C should be anticipated.
mid-term targets are 1.159 and 1.18.

light blue line with upward slope should serve as support. if rate breaks below that line, uptrend assumption will be compromised.

Note

EURUSD intraday overview.
Pair retraced 38.2% of the recent trend.
rate was supported by a median line.
break above (green) abc median line should trigger strong demand.

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while 1.159 and 1.18 are mid-term targets,
1.145 is reasonable short-term target.

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intraday overview.
current support 1.1338 has been broken.
EURUSD is expected to form a short-term correction pattern.

mid-term uptrend assumption is valid if price doesn't break 1.1247

me: instead of booking 2% profit I acquired 1% loss... [typical story]

Note

Education:
here is the power of median line
it showed that the recent trend has been broken and price will not go up without a correction.
it could have saved me 31 pips (18 pips of profit) if I had executed decision based on this intraday price action, instead of short-term one.

by the way, pair still holds short-term supportive median line. was it so called fake breakout? (bid price went below my SL by 0.7 pip. guess my feelings! I could be in profit now)

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EURUSD intraday overveiw
Pair is expected to form a correction pattern to resume uptrend.
rate should retrace at least to 1.1319 (38.2% of recent short-term trend)
estimated target is 1.1287 (161.8% of wave c; 61.8% retracement of recent uptrend)
current mid-term support is 1.1249

Note

EURUSD intraday overview
pair reached minimum required correction target (38.2%)
c = 100% of a.
rate surged rapidly and broke the recent median line, which may trigger strong buying interest and eventually resume mid-term uptrend if current correction pattern is indeed completed.

alternative: current short-term correction pattern may be more complicated, as a result further correction may take place.

Note

EURUSD intraday overview
despite breaking assumed abc structure, the following currency pair price action disappoints. upward movement appeared to be limited. standard deviation stays relatively low, showing low volatility, which may indicate that EURUSD is still kept inside correction pattern.
break below ML(blue line with upward slope) will confirm that continuation of upward movement is delayed and price is about to form more complicated correction pattern.
RCI on m30 h1 h4 charts is above 50 lvl.
mid-term support is now at 1.1254.

Trade closed manually

EURUSD intraday overview
pair reach 61.8% short-term target. C= 61.8% * A
then price broke the structure. (median lines)
structure looks like ABC.
price action may signal the continuation of mid-term downtrend. (on the other hand a correction to continue further uptrend, which now is looks less likely)

current mid-term support is 1.1264. break below that lvl will confirm downward scenario.

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greater picture

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EUR mid-term overview

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EURUSD is close to its median line support level.
it's is can be nice risk/reward opportunity for bulls.

5 minute chart
strong RSI divergence took place (on 5,15,30 min charts)

Note

current mid-term support is 1.128
break below its level will invalidate mid-term uptrend assumption.

Note

EURUSD mid-term overview
pair broke below its crucial support median line.
mid-term uptrend assumption became invalid.

looks like EURUSD resumes its long-term downtrend.

OleksandrSnitko

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OleksandrSnitko