EURUSD 29-3 May 2024 W18 Weekly Analysis - FOMC / NFP Week!
This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 29-3 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Potential EUR Upside:
Weaker Dollar: The recent US economic data, particularly the lower than expected GDP growth, has weakened the US dollar. This trend could continue if upcoming data disappoints.
Eurozone Data: Key Eurozone data releases (flash GDP and CPI) could show signs of improving economic health, boosting the Euro.
Potential EUR Downside:
Strong US Jobs Report: The highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could show strong job growth, strengthening the dollar.
Hawkish Fed: The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday is a key event. If the Fed signals a more aggressive rate hike path to combat inflation, the dollar will likely strengthen.
Overall:
The EUR/USD sentiment is currently uncertain. The direction will depend on the outcome of key data releases and the Fed meeting.
Weekly Chart Analysis
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FCVfq0zn/
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Daily Chart Analysis
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YC1HXZFK/
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4H Chart Analysis
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CXO1nzFf/
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Economic Events for the Week
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KzHMdnmU/
- Market Sentiment
- Weekly Chart Analysis
- Daily Chart Analysis
- 4H Chart Analysis
- Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
Potential EUR Upside:
Weaker Dollar: The recent US economic data, particularly the lower than expected GDP growth, has weakened the US dollar. This trend could continue if upcoming data disappoints.
Eurozone Data: Key Eurozone data releases (flash GDP and CPI) could show signs of improving economic health, boosting the Euro.
Potential EUR Downside:
Strong US Jobs Report: The highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could show strong job growth, strengthening the dollar.
Hawkish Fed: The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday is a key event. If the Fed signals a more aggressive rate hike path to combat inflation, the dollar will likely strengthen.
Overall:
The EUR/USD sentiment is currently uncertain. The direction will depend on the outcome of key data releases and the Fed meeting.
Weekly Chart Analysis
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FCVfq0zn/
1.
- Swing Bearish
- Internal Bearish
- Reached Swing EQ
- Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
- After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.
3.
- Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
- Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
4.
- Price currently within a Weekly demand zone that can initiate a minor Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YC1HXZFK/
1.
- Swing Bearish
- INT Bearish
- Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
- Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.
3.
- After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
- Currently price is within the Weekly Demand and swept Liq from the left.
- Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone.
- We didn't mitigate any HP Supply to initiate the INT Structure continuation phase so the scenario will be that price still could continue to mitigate the Daily Supply Zone.
- Other scenario that with the corrective more currently we are in price will continue down without the mitigation of a Supply zone.
- More price development required / LTF confirmations for the 2 scenarios.
4.
- Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.
4H Chart Analysis
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CXO1nzFf/
1.
- Swing Bearish
- Internal Bearish
- Sub-Internal Bullish
- INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
- Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
- After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
- With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
4.
- With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
- A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
- More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario.
Economic Events for the Week
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KzHMdnmU/
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