EURUSD: the ECB week ahead
The Non-farm Payrolls for November were the main macro indicator that the market was waiting for during the previous week. The NFP of 227K in November was slightly above the market expectations of 200K. At the same time, the unemployment rate in November increased a bit to 4,2%, from the previous 4,1%. Average hourly earnings were higher by 0,4% for the month, which brings the indicator up by 4% for the year. As for other US macro data published during the week, the ISM Manufacturing reached the level of 48,4 in November, modestly above market estimate of 47,5. The ISM Services PMI in November reached the level of 52,1 which was lower from market estimate of 55,5. Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for December is standing at 74,0 a bit higher from the market expectation of 72,5. Inflation expectation for the next five years has a bit decreased to the level of 3,1%, from 3,2% posted during the previous month.
The Manufacturing industry in Germany continues to slow down. As per posted HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for November, the index in Germany reached the level of 43, which was below market estimate of 43,2. The same index reached 46 in the Euro Zone a bit better from forecasted 45,2. At the same time, the services sector in Germany is doing better from manufacturing, as HCOB Services PMI final for November reached 51,6 a bit better from estimated 49,4. The same index for the Euro Zone was also standing at the level of 51,6. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Zone dropped by -0,6% in October, bringing the total drop to -3,4% for the year. The Retail Sales in the Euro Zone were higher by 0,5% in October, bringing the indicator up by 2,9% for the year. The Industrial Production in Germany dropped by -2,5% in October for the month, which was significantly below market expectations of +2,5%.
Despite the relatively solid jobs data, the market is increasing odds that the Fed will further cut interest rates at their December meeting. The USD weakened a bit during the previous week, from the level of 1,048 up to the level of 1,062. The currency pair ended the week at the level of 1,056. The RSI started its path toward the upside, however at the level of 45, there is no clear sign that the market is currently eyeing the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days continued its divergence from the MA200, confirming the cross occurred two weeks ago.
The week ahead will be the ECB week. The Europeans will decide on the future course of reference interest rates. Considering decreasing inflation, but also weakening of the EuroZone economy, the market is expecting to see a further 25 bps cut. On the other hand, the US market will digest the latest NFP and inflation data and position accordingly for the FOMC meeting, scheduled for December 17-18th. As per current charts, there is some probability for resistance line at 1,07 to be tested, but first the 1,06 level should be clearly breached. At the same time, charts are also showing some probability that 1,05 support could be tested for one more time.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Inflation rate in Germany final for November, ECB Interest Rate Decision (expectations: 3%), ECB Press conference after the ECB meeting, ECB Economic Projections, Balance of Trade in Germany for October, Industrial Production in the EuroZone, HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for December in Germany and the Euro Zone
USD: Inflation rate in November, Producers Price Index in November
The Manufacturing industry in Germany continues to slow down. As per posted HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for November, the index in Germany reached the level of 43, which was below market estimate of 43,2. The same index reached 46 in the Euro Zone a bit better from forecasted 45,2. At the same time, the services sector in Germany is doing better from manufacturing, as HCOB Services PMI final for November reached 51,6 a bit better from estimated 49,4. The same index for the Euro Zone was also standing at the level of 51,6. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Zone dropped by -0,6% in October, bringing the total drop to -3,4% for the year. The Retail Sales in the Euro Zone were higher by 0,5% in October, bringing the indicator up by 2,9% for the year. The Industrial Production in Germany dropped by -2,5% in October for the month, which was significantly below market expectations of +2,5%.
Despite the relatively solid jobs data, the market is increasing odds that the Fed will further cut interest rates at their December meeting. The USD weakened a bit during the previous week, from the level of 1,048 up to the level of 1,062. The currency pair ended the week at the level of 1,056. The RSI started its path toward the upside, however at the level of 45, there is no clear sign that the market is currently eyeing the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days continued its divergence from the MA200, confirming the cross occurred two weeks ago.
The week ahead will be the ECB week. The Europeans will decide on the future course of reference interest rates. Considering decreasing inflation, but also weakening of the EuroZone economy, the market is expecting to see a further 25 bps cut. On the other hand, the US market will digest the latest NFP and inflation data and position accordingly for the FOMC meeting, scheduled for December 17-18th. As per current charts, there is some probability for resistance line at 1,07 to be tested, but first the 1,06 level should be clearly breached. At the same time, charts are also showing some probability that 1,05 support could be tested for one more time.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Inflation rate in Germany final for November, ECB Interest Rate Decision (expectations: 3%), ECB Press conference after the ECB meeting, ECB Economic Projections, Balance of Trade in Germany for October, Industrial Production in the EuroZone, HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for December in Germany and the Euro Zone
USD: Inflation rate in November, Producers Price Index in November
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