Ford valuation looks great
Updated
A New Product Shows Ford Is Finally Taking Electric Seriously
Ford just announced the release of its Lightning all-electric F150, due 2022. Available at essentially the same price point ($39,974) that Tesla has advertised for its Cybertruck, due late 2021. A Ford rep dropped this little bomb on Tesla's triangle-shaped Cybertruck in a media interview: “Our customers told us they want something modern and advanced, but did not want their truck to look like a doorstop or a spaceship.” Boom.
The new F150 does look a lot better than the doorstop, and it has some cool features. Instead of an engine under the hood, it has a spacious storage space there, which they're calling a "frunk." The frunk has a 400-pound capacity and four 110-volt power outlets and two USB charging outlets.
There's a total of 11 outlets on the truck. Whereas Tesla will void your warranty if you try to power your home with your car battery, the F150 outlets are specifically designed to serve as backup power (9.6 kW and 3 days worth of power) for your home. If your F150 is plugged in and an outage occurs, your F150 will automatically switch to providing power to your home. Wow. You do have to buy an extra 80-amp wall box and home power system to make that work, though. The wall box also increases range and charging speed.
For charging away from home, Ford has a North American charging network with more than 63,000 plugs. These will charge an extended range F150 from 15 to 80 percent in about 41 minutes. The standard-range truck has a range of 230 miles, while the extended-range truck can go 300 miles. The F150 offers hands-free highway driving to compete with Tesla's autonomous driving features.
The Valuation on Ford is Insane
Most of the "cheap" companies out there are trading at a price to free cash flow ratio around 7 or 8. Ford is trading at 2 P/FCF, making it cheaper on that basis than just about any other company I follow. Forward P/E is around 12, with P/S at 0.38 and P/B at 1.46. Get this: according to Fidelity, the 5-year PEG ratio for Ford is 0.25. 0.25!!!! Ford has also been crushing analyst estimates on recent earnings reports.
Sentiment is Strong
Ford has an 8.8/10 analyst score and an 85/100 fundamentals score from S&P Global. Ford's ESG score leaves a little something to be desired, but maybe that will improve as the company electrifies. Put/call ratio is bullish at 0.66. Technicals look good. On the monthly chart, moving averages are pointing upward, and price is sitting right atop the 200-month EMA. Similar story on the daily. We popped through a resistance line the last few days. I am buying any dip to the 20- or 50-day EMA.
Weekly recently made a 50-200 bullish moving average cross:
With news, valuation, sentiment, and technicals all lined up, I bought both shares and a couple long-dated 2023 calls at the $12 strike, because YOLO.
Ford just announced the release of its Lightning all-electric F150, due 2022. Available at essentially the same price point ($39,974) that Tesla has advertised for its Cybertruck, due late 2021. A Ford rep dropped this little bomb on Tesla's triangle-shaped Cybertruck in a media interview: “Our customers told us they want something modern and advanced, but did not want their truck to look like a doorstop or a spaceship.” Boom.
The new F150 does look a lot better than the doorstop, and it has some cool features. Instead of an engine under the hood, it has a spacious storage space there, which they're calling a "frunk." The frunk has a 400-pound capacity and four 110-volt power outlets and two USB charging outlets.
There's a total of 11 outlets on the truck. Whereas Tesla will void your warranty if you try to power your home with your car battery, the F150 outlets are specifically designed to serve as backup power (9.6 kW and 3 days worth of power) for your home. If your F150 is plugged in and an outage occurs, your F150 will automatically switch to providing power to your home. Wow. You do have to buy an extra 80-amp wall box and home power system to make that work, though. The wall box also increases range and charging speed.
For charging away from home, Ford has a North American charging network with more than 63,000 plugs. These will charge an extended range F150 from 15 to 80 percent in about 41 minutes. The standard-range truck has a range of 230 miles, while the extended-range truck can go 300 miles. The F150 offers hands-free highway driving to compete with Tesla's autonomous driving features.
The Valuation on Ford is Insane
Most of the "cheap" companies out there are trading at a price to free cash flow ratio around 7 or 8. Ford is trading at 2 P/FCF, making it cheaper on that basis than just about any other company I follow. Forward P/E is around 12, with P/S at 0.38 and P/B at 1.46. Get this: according to Fidelity, the 5-year PEG ratio for Ford is 0.25. 0.25!!!! Ford has also been crushing analyst estimates on recent earnings reports.
Sentiment is Strong
Ford has an 8.8/10 analyst score and an 85/100 fundamentals score from S&P Global. Ford's ESG score leaves a little something to be desired, but maybe that will improve as the company electrifies. Put/call ratio is bullish at 0.66. Technicals look good. On the monthly chart, moving averages are pointing upward, and price is sitting right atop the 200-month EMA. Similar story on the daily. We popped through a resistance line the last few days. I am buying any dip to the 20- or 50-day EMA.
Weekly recently made a 50-200 bullish moving average cross:
With news, valuation, sentiment, and technicals all lined up, I bought both shares and a couple long-dated 2023 calls at the $12 strike, because YOLO.
Note
Ford basically hit my $16.00 target today. Possibly there will be a continuation to $17.00 before it regresses to the mean, but I took profit on my calls here.
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