F hasn't been this overbought since 2017. It's run up 23% in the last month and is up 13 of the last 15 trading days. A 20% drop over the next couple of months would be my most likely scenario.
Stocks can always go higher, especially with a good earnings report, which F has coming up in a week. But if they miss or disappoint in any way, I'd expect a pullback.
I would definitely NOT short this, despite my feelings about the possibility of a pullback, as shorts that make any money in F can take a long time to come to fruition and significant rises often happen first. Short term, even when this overbought, there tend to be minor pullbacks of a few percent, but nothing (in my opinion) worth the risk of going short. I sure wouldn't be a buyer here, though.
I think it will be oversold soon and offer a better entry point for longs. Just my opinion and not an overly strong one at that. F is tricky and TBH I don't have a great track record with it.
Stocks can always go higher, especially with a good earnings report, which F has coming up in a week. But if they miss or disappoint in any way, I'd expect a pullback.
I would definitely NOT short this, despite my feelings about the possibility of a pullback, as shorts that make any money in F can take a long time to come to fruition and significant rises often happen first. Short term, even when this overbought, there tend to be minor pullbacks of a few percent, but nothing (in my opinion) worth the risk of going short. I sure wouldn't be a buyer here, though.
I think it will be oversold soon and offer a better entry point for longs. Just my opinion and not an overly strong one at that. F is tricky and TBH I don't have a great track record with it.
Note
For the record, had I shorted this or bought puts I'd have closed that position today. My gut says it still has more downside in it, but with earnings coming, you just never know. +3.4% in two days is a great trade this week. Too bad I didn't buy puts but I just didn't have the conviction and I really didn't expect this sharp of a downside move this soon in the process.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.