FCPO - Expect open gap down before MPOB Release
Updated
MPOB data to released on today noon. The survey data expecting rise in inventory. (See below survey data)
The long holiday in Malaysia have not priced in 1.3% drop in soybean oil (BO1!), market is expecting to open down later. Price below 2262 suggesting price move in correction. FCPO formed a double top formation with target at 2255.
FCPO support between 2263 2237 (see right chart)
Bloomberg Poll Aug vs Jul MPOB:
Prodn 1.65m vs +1.50m (+10%)
Expt 1.24m vs 1.21m (+2.5%)
Stks 2.41m vs 2.21m (+9%)
Reuters Poll:
Prodn 1.65m (+9.88%)
Impt 50k
Expt 1.23m (+2.25%)
LDsp 270k
Stks 2.41m (+8.96%)
CIMB Poll:
Prodn 1.681m (+11.8%)
Impt 44k
Expt 1.236m (+2.5%)
LDsp 239k
Stks 2.464m (+11.3%)
The long holiday in Malaysia have not priced in 1.3% drop in soybean oil (BO1!), market is expecting to open down later. Price below 2262 suggesting price move in correction. FCPO formed a double top formation with target at 2255.
FCPO support between 2263 2237 (see right chart)
Bloomberg Poll Aug vs Jul MPOB:
Prodn 1.65m vs +1.50m (+10%)
Expt 1.24m vs 1.21m (+2.5%)
Stks 2.41m vs 2.21m (+9%)
Reuters Poll:
Prodn 1.65m (+9.88%)
Impt 50k
Expt 1.23m (+2.25%)
LDsp 270k
Stks 2.41m (+8.96%)
CIMB Poll:
Prodn 1.681m (+11.8%)
Impt 44k
Expt 1.236m (+2.5%)
LDsp 239k
Stks 2.464m (+11.3%)
Note
MPOB (August 18)Stocks: 2.49 million tonnes (+12.4%)
Production: 1.62 million tonnes (+7.9%)
Exports: 1.10 million tonnes (-8.1%)
Relatively bearish data released.
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