Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market does not have much more room inside the current structure. I’m favoring a huge bear trend tomorrow but until we strongly close a 1h bar below 21100, that bias does not make much sense. Lower highs and higher lows. Wait for the breakout.
current market cycle: trading range or continuation of the bear trend - answer will be given on Thursday(?), maybe. Wasn’t given on Tu/We as expected, so let’s see what tomorrow brings
key levels: 19000 - 22000
bull case: Bulls still above the 4h 20ema but too weak to print 21500. They are making higher lows but tomorrow, one side will most likely give up and I still favor the bears. Bulls could do the print above 21500 and retest 21700 then, if we go strongly above, we would see a short squeeze for the ages. Below 21100 bulls have to pray 21000 holds or we could go much lower to 20700 or even lower.
Invalidation is below 21000.
bear case: Bears need lower lows below 21100 and most certainly can not let the market get above 21500. That sum’s it up nicely I’d say. I have doubts we can close this week far from 21000. So shorts above 21300 with stop 21500 are still decent.
Invalidation is above 21500.
short term: Neutral. Bearish above 21300. No longs from me.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting 21500. Perfect double top.
comment: Market does not have much more room inside the current structure. I’m favoring a huge bear trend tomorrow but until we strongly close a 1h bar below 21100, that bias does not make much sense. Lower highs and higher lows. Wait for the breakout.
current market cycle: trading range or continuation of the bear trend - answer will be given on Thursday(?), maybe. Wasn’t given on Tu/We as expected, so let’s see what tomorrow brings
key levels: 19000 - 22000
bull case: Bulls still above the 4h 20ema but too weak to print 21500. They are making higher lows but tomorrow, one side will most likely give up and I still favor the bears. Bulls could do the print above 21500 and retest 21700 then, if we go strongly above, we would see a short squeeze for the ages. Below 21100 bulls have to pray 21000 holds or we could go much lower to 20700 or even lower.
Invalidation is below 21000.
bear case: Bears need lower lows below 21100 and most certainly can not let the market get above 21500. That sum’s it up nicely I’d say. I have doubts we can close this week far from 21000. So shorts above 21300 with stop 21500 are still decent.
Invalidation is above 21500.
short term: Neutral. Bearish above 21300. No longs from me.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting 21500. Perfect double top.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.