NEXT WEEK'S "SHOPPING LIST" -- FEYE, ANFI, FIT, RTRX, MCRB(?)
Updated
With broad market volatility abysmally low (VIX <12), it's a game of hunt and peck for "diamonds in the rough" in terms of premium selling.
For the most part, I'm looking for sub-$20 underlyings here with high implied volatility for either selling naked puts (bullish assumption) or initiating covered calls where the purchase of the stock, combined with selling the first out-of-the-money call 30-45 DTE, will yield at least a 10% ROC if the stock is called away at the short call strike.
The reason why I'm sticking with particularly low priced underlyings is (a) I don't want to tie up a bunch of buying power on these short-term (basically) engagement trades; and (b) don't want to take a lot of risk on dollar and cents wise. The max loss you can experience with an outright stock purchase, a covered call, and/or a naked short put is the risk associated with the stock going to "0"; less room to fall equals less room for loss. Additionally, the reason why I'm going covered call/naked short put over a short strangle/iron condor (my standard go-to's) is because you simply cannot get enough premium out of a short strangle or iron condor to make doing those on these low-priced underlyings worthwhile with those kinds of setups.
With all that background in mind, here's what I'm looking at:
FEYE: It announces earnings in a few days here, but the metrics are good enough to either go naked short put or to just dive right into a covered call. (Covered Call: 100 shares at 17.42; Sept 16th 18 short call for 1.54 credit; whole package, 15.95 debit; max profit 2.05 ($205); ROC 12.85%; Sept 16th 16 short put: 1.05 cr at the mid).
ANFI: I've never played this little specialty foods company before. (Covered Call: 100 shares at 7.11; Sept 16th 7.5 short call for .75 credit at the mid; whole package, 6.70 debit; max profit .80 ($80); ROC 11.94%). This isn't the most liquid thing in the world, so whether the package is as "sexy" as it is in the off hours remains to be seen.
FIT: This is a one trick pony, and I generally don't like one trick ponies; nevertheless, I'm glad to ride a one trick pony for a little bit if the premium is there. (Covered Call: 100 shares at 13.66; Sept 16th 14 short call for 1.23 credit; whole package 12.37; max profit 1.63 ($163); ROC 13.18%).
RTRX: Another high volatility biopharma stock. I'd rather be put at $12 a share than $15, but the underlying is afflicted with odd-ball, $2 1/2 wide strikes to work with, so it's either 12.5 or 15 short put, if you decide to take that path. (Sept 16th $15 short put goes for 1.52 ($152) at the mid; Covered Call: 100 shares at 17.93; Sept 16th 20 short call for 2.30; whole package: 16.20; Max Profit: 3.80 ($380); ROC 23.5%). Unfortunately, the first short call strike above current price is at 20, so the underlying will have to move from 17.93 to 20.00 for you to get called away, so this might be a longer term sort of play than the others due to the short call's distance from current price.
MCRB: This thing has tanked mightily, due to lackluster trial data on one of its drugs. There are other drugs in the pipeline, but the question is whether its losing some 70% of its value on Friday is a buying opportunity or the start of a long death spiral. Currently, I'm unable to get pricing on puts below the underlying's current stock price, so I'll have to take a look at it at market open.
For the most part, I'm looking for sub-$20 underlyings here with high implied volatility for either selling naked puts (bullish assumption) or initiating covered calls where the purchase of the stock, combined with selling the first out-of-the-money call 30-45 DTE, will yield at least a 10% ROC if the stock is called away at the short call strike.
The reason why I'm sticking with particularly low priced underlyings is (a) I don't want to tie up a bunch of buying power on these short-term (basically) engagement trades; and (b) don't want to take a lot of risk on dollar and cents wise. The max loss you can experience with an outright stock purchase, a covered call, and/or a naked short put is the risk associated with the stock going to "0"; less room to fall equals less room for loss. Additionally, the reason why I'm going covered call/naked short put over a short strangle/iron condor (my standard go-to's) is because you simply cannot get enough premium out of a short strangle or iron condor to make doing those on these low-priced underlyings worthwhile with those kinds of setups.
With all that background in mind, here's what I'm looking at:
FEYE: It announces earnings in a few days here, but the metrics are good enough to either go naked short put or to just dive right into a covered call. (Covered Call: 100 shares at 17.42; Sept 16th 18 short call for 1.54 credit; whole package, 15.95 debit; max profit 2.05 ($205); ROC 12.85%; Sept 16th 16 short put: 1.05 cr at the mid).
ANFI: I've never played this little specialty foods company before. (Covered Call: 100 shares at 7.11; Sept 16th 7.5 short call for .75 credit at the mid; whole package, 6.70 debit; max profit .80 ($80); ROC 11.94%). This isn't the most liquid thing in the world, so whether the package is as "sexy" as it is in the off hours remains to be seen.
FIT: This is a one trick pony, and I generally don't like one trick ponies; nevertheless, I'm glad to ride a one trick pony for a little bit if the premium is there. (Covered Call: 100 shares at 13.66; Sept 16th 14 short call for 1.23 credit; whole package 12.37; max profit 1.63 ($163); ROC 13.18%).
RTRX: Another high volatility biopharma stock. I'd rather be put at $12 a share than $15, but the underlying is afflicted with odd-ball, $2 1/2 wide strikes to work with, so it's either 12.5 or 15 short put, if you decide to take that path. (Sept 16th $15 short put goes for 1.52 ($152) at the mid; Covered Call: 100 shares at 17.93; Sept 16th 20 short call for 2.30; whole package: 16.20; Max Profit: 3.80 ($380); ROC 23.5%). Unfortunately, the first short call strike above current price is at 20, so the underlying will have to move from 17.93 to 20.00 for you to get called away, so this might be a longer term sort of play than the others due to the short call's distance from current price.
MCRB: This thing has tanked mightily, due to lackluster trial data on one of its drugs. There are other drugs in the pipeline, but the question is whether its losing some 70% of its value on Friday is a buying opportunity or the start of a long death spiral. Currently, I'm unable to get pricing on puts below the underlying's current stock price, so I'll have to take a look at it at market open.
Note
There are a couple of additional ones that I'm already in that might be worthwhile: NVAX and SRPT, both biopharma. I have a covered call on in NVAX and also have sold some short puts to further reduce my cost basis in my shares. With SRPT, I'm all naked short put.Note
Also, another shout out to TheBanker for the RTRX idea.Note
At NY open, the ANFI and MCRB trades did not look attractive, largely due to the $2.50 wide strikes, so you're selling a put either too close to current price or too far away from price and therefore "premium thin." The FEYE, FIT, and RTRX are still candidates which I'll look at again tomorrow. I would note that RTRX also suffers from 2 1/2 wide strikes, although I can deal with that because of the dollar value of the underlying.
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