There is a broad consensus out there for higher Bund yields, and we agree. Euro zone bond yields ticked up again last week as inflation expectations rise.
Our updated chart shows that from a TA point of view we will need to break over the resistance at 173 and aim higher. If this resistance is not breached over, we could experience a significant drop in the price of the euro.
ps. As the rate of one currency increases relative to another, investors are attracted to the higher yielding currency. Additionally, the cost of owning the lower yielding currency increase as the bond yield differential moves in favor of the currency that is sold. On our previous idea we are looking at a short on EURUSD. Let it be no confusion: Both EURBUND can rise and eurusd can drop at the same time, as eurusd is the euro in comparison to the US Dollar.
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