FOUR - Sep 24 Opening Sustainable Momentum
Updated
Technicals
- RUT H1, Green momentum candle, breaking out and confirming the end of a potential bear trend structure. D1 RUT Price structure now looking like a range with price moving up.
- FOUR had a H2 momentum that cleared most of the range it was in and barely broke the resistance line. I placed an entry position on the high of the H2 candle and got filled.
Near Term Fundamental Catalysts
- Q2 Earnings released on the 8 Aug shows strong growth in EPS ($0.96, 77.7% increase vs Q1) and Sales (827M, 16.91% vs Q1). For the past seven quarters, sales has had incremental growth with Q2 2024 having the most significant move.
- FOUR's current contracted estimated backlog is roughly 25B in volume. This contracts are pending implementation or it’s expected run rate.
- 12 Sep, Jared Isaacman the CEO was one of the individuals the made history by participating in the private spacewalk by SpaceX. This should increase the awareness of the company.
Opening Sustainable Momentum 🧑🏻🚀
Strategy
Signals identify market opening H2 candles through momentum and behaviour change that potentially could indicate a shift in the current price overall structure (Price gaps and ADR %).
Risk
We use the signal candle's highs and lows for entry and stop loss. If price hits the stop loss, it is clear that the shift we expected did not come to fruitation.
Current SL is at 0.25Fib
Stock Pool
Shortlisted Mid to Small cap Tech stocks that have clear D1 and H2 price movement (Not choppy). Historically has shown price movements aligned to high impact moves in on the RUT index.
Focus
Focus is never on the signal candle alone, but it's role in the larger structure and the direction it is inclined towards with a minimum Risk & Reward of 2R.
Stock must be in a pull back or consolidation area waiting for a broad market momentum to ignite it forward.
Character
Trend, Positive Skew
- RUT H1, Green momentum candle, breaking out and confirming the end of a potential bear trend structure. D1 RUT Price structure now looking like a range with price moving up.
- FOUR had a H2 momentum that cleared most of the range it was in and barely broke the resistance line. I placed an entry position on the high of the H2 candle and got filled.
Near Term Fundamental Catalysts
- Q2 Earnings released on the 8 Aug shows strong growth in EPS ($0.96, 77.7% increase vs Q1) and Sales (827M, 16.91% vs Q1). For the past seven quarters, sales has had incremental growth with Q2 2024 having the most significant move.
- FOUR's current contracted estimated backlog is roughly 25B in volume. This contracts are pending implementation or it’s expected run rate.
- 12 Sep, Jared Isaacman the CEO was one of the individuals the made history by participating in the private spacewalk by SpaceX. This should increase the awareness of the company.
Opening Sustainable Momentum 🧑🏻🚀
Strategy
Signals identify market opening H2 candles through momentum and behaviour change that potentially could indicate a shift in the current price overall structure (Price gaps and ADR %).
Risk
We use the signal candle's highs and lows for entry and stop loss. If price hits the stop loss, it is clear that the shift we expected did not come to fruitation.
Current SL is at 0.25Fib
Stock Pool
Shortlisted Mid to Small cap Tech stocks that have clear D1 and H2 price movement (Not choppy). Historically has shown price movements aligned to high impact moves in on the RUT index.
Focus
Focus is never on the signal candle alone, but it's role in the larger structure and the direction it is inclined towards with a minimum Risk & Reward of 2R.
Stock must be in a pull back or consolidation area waiting for a broad market momentum to ignite it forward.
Character
Trend, Positive Skew
Trade closed manually
+1.5R
Decided to close the trade even though FOUR has been somewhat of a good outlier. Falling less and some days even rising when the rest of the broader market fell.
1) Price has been ranging for the longest time and I decided with Non farm payrolls happening tomorrow I might as well protect myself from this liquidity especially since price has been bouncing around since the 30 Sep.
2) As RUT and SPX are looking more and more bearish. I should just lock profit and look for another entry when it comes up.
3) Closing the LONG position also mentally frees me to clearly look for SHORT opportunities
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